and there it is....
There were a number of other bad beats (including UL-Monroe, which didn't make it), but I wonder if @wbcbus was right and SVP included because he was a little salty.
BWI Sport Betting Thread
- Thread starter Grant Green
- Start date
There were a number of other bad beats (including UL-Monroe, which didn't make it), but I wonder if @wbcbus was right and SVP included because he was a little salty.
Poker pro pleads guilty to bettor fraud scheme
A professional poker player pleaded guilty to defrauding bettors by falsely claiming to have inside information on sporting events.
www.espn.com
Good work by our government!
"... betting advice by claiming to have knowledge of nonpublic injury information, "dirty" referees and fixed games,".Poker pro pleads guilty to bettor fraud scheme
A professional poker player pleaded guilty to defrauding bettors by falsely claiming to have inside information on sporting events.
Good work by our government!
Not to excuse Zeidman, but how do people actually believe this enough to give him money?
I mean, read our board before, during, and after every big game, and you’ll find plenty that believe it.
All sports bettors are not created equal.
Your comment reminds me of the saying, “It is better to keep one's mouth shut and be thought a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.”
The overriding theme of our current society is built on distrust of anyone in power, a lack of personal accountability ("everyone else must be cheating to be better off than I am") and a strong desire to compile conspiracies based on these beliefs ... and then to take down the evildoers.
Preying on these weak-minded individuals is like shooting fish in a barrel. It got someone a ... uh, let's just say a rather high powered office in the government ... twice ... it's easy to see how it can pry some poor performing idiot's money from their hands with promise of insight into how they're being "duped" (by duping them).
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I need to see this game before actually believing in Penn State. They were running teams off the floor and then they faced a team with a pulse in Clemson and it didn't go so well. Purdue has a pulse and they do play defense so my lean would be toward the Boilers but I need to see them do it on the road. They got plastered at Marquette and that's been their only road test. If anything, this will be a live bet situation for me
I've basically got it as a pick (I've got PSU at like a half point better), so pass for me unless there was a lot of late $ on PSU and it somehow made it to 3.
Please keep politics out of this thread unless it is a non partisan thought that involves wagering.
Yeah, some lose more than others. Casinos, including sports books, are not built on winners.
I won’t change your mind, and you won’t change mine.
Yes, please. This is the
A select portion of sport bettors win over the long run. In fact, some make a living doing it (maybe even represented in this thread). If you disagree then you are 100% dead wrong.
It's not a game you bet ... it's a test/assessment game for future bets. I thought 2024/25 PSU was a typical PSU team (up and down, the occasional big win with more dumb losses that keep them out of the Dance) after that Clemson loss, but then Clemson has been a pretty good ball club, even taking down Kentucky ...
I think college hoops is much messier this year than previous years, generally. And I think we need to see more of this PSU team against better comp to see who they are.
That said ... take the over.
Edit as the 1st half is ending ... like I said, take the under.
Edit after game is over … like I said, take the over (150.5). Had it all the way … no worries.
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Marshall will play it's 3rd straight road game and 4th out of 5 games. Our man Huff is apparently looking at the SMiss job. I knew they got outgained last week and won, but I didn't realize that they were outgained in 6 of their last 8 games and one of the other two games (GA St) was a tie in yardage.
Can someone explain why the 3.5 isn’t moving more? It’s crazy that betting public sees this as such a close game
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You're thinking it should be moving to -4 or -3? That graphic indicates that the "public bet" is heavily on Oregon. I'm not sure what they define as "public bet", but I'm guessing that it's the number of tickets. Often, you will see #tickets and also amount of money bet in %. In theory, if there is a lot of tickets on one team, but the money is on the other team, it's an indicator of where sharp action is.
If the public is all over Oregon and the line is moving toward PSU (note the -115 odds indicating that +3.5 is getting bet), I would say that it could be an indicator that more sharp bets are on PSU.
My question would be, at which percentage differential of monies wagered does a Sportsbook move a line? How much is that effected by time from event, if at all?
Ya you’re right. I had it backwards in my head. It’s been a long time since I gambled with the rent money.
Good question. I can't answer for sure, but I would guess that it isn't always the same %diff and will vary depending on the game. The book is way more likely to move a number if a known sharp bettor makes a bet than a bunch of Joe Publics. Probably more likely to make bigger moves early in the week when limits are low.
Sometimes a book will take a position on a game and not move the line despite lopsided money.
One other consideration is that they don't want to move a line too much and risk getting middled.
I'm sure @Erial_Lion will have some interesting thoughts on this.
As @Grant Green said, books care a lot more about “who” than “how much”. A sharp account makes a reasonable bet and they’ll move the line. Floyd Mayweather bets a million and they don’t care. Books will also just follow Pinnacle as they move stuff (since they are the sharpest book in the world), or even move on “air” if information comes out (or if someone like RAS releases a play and they want to beat the $ coming in). I’d pay no attention to anything a book publicly releases about $/# of bets on a game, since what squares are doing is meaningless.
Are you trying to imply that no one wins long term? If so, then you’re definitely wrong…it’s a career to some.
Bettor wagers $3.1M on Eagles to beat Panthers
A bettor in Kentucky is backing the Philadelphia Eagles to defeat the Carolina Panthers on Sunday with a $3.1 million wager, one of the largest bets ever reported on an NFL regular-season game.
www.espn.com
I assume you don't bet $3.1 million unless you can afford to lose it and the Eagles are winning right now, but I would be very nervous, as the game is pretty close.Bettor wagers $3.1M on Eagles to beat Panthers
A bettor in Kentucky is backing the Philadelphia Eagles to defeat the Carolina Panthers on Sunday with a $3.1 million wager, one of the largest bets ever reported on an NFL regular-season game.
You better be pretty confident that the moneyline is significantly off to bet that amount. The handicap better be more than "there's no way the eagles could lose to the panthers".
It obviously wasn't from someone that's a winning bettor, otherwise the book never would have taken that action.
I was a couple of games off the pace to cash and needed to go about 9-1 the rest of the year (potentially 8-2). Won the Thursday night game, but just put up an 0-3 in the early NFL games to seal the deal (NO -4.5, LV +7.5, PHI -12.5).
Bummer. Seems like you have to run ridiculously good to compete in those.
I had LV at +7 and was happy with that number. Sucks that OConnell got hurt. When/how did you get 7.5? Are you able to submit picks as soon as lines are posted?
It's the opposite, they are against stale lines. They release the lines on Tuesday, and have until Sunday at 1pm eastern to lock the plays (or kick of any games earlier than that).
You pick 5 games a week for 16 of the first 17 weeks, so 80 games total. It's trending towards needing to hit at 60% to cash (and basically double the entry fee). Leader is at 73.4% right now (47-17).
Figured that since it's our game, I'll mention that I just played us at +3.5 (lots of +3 -105 out there too) tonight. Tough spot going into the RAC against a Rutgers team that needs a win badly. I don't love the play, but this line is too far off of my number (I have it exactly a pick) and crosses some pretty important numbers of 2 and 3.
Plus, I'll do what I can to help neutralize their HCA.
Plus, I'll do what I can to help neutralize their HCA.
Misleading box score:
It's not egregious, but since there weren't any others that stood out and it was our game. As is often the case, the turnover margin makes the difference. I think I said earlier that I've heard it speculated that each turnover is worth about 5 pts in scoring differential. Anecdotally, it generally tracks in all the box score reviews I've done over the years.
PSU -37pts 518yds 7ypp -2TO
UO - 45pts 466yds 6.2ypp
It's not egregious, but since there weren't any others that stood out and it was our game. As is often the case, the turnover margin makes the difference. I think I said earlier that I've heard it speculated that each turnover is worth about 5 pts in scoring differential. Anecdotally, it generally tracks in all the box score reviews I've done over the years.
PSU -37pts 518yds 7ypp -2TO
UO - 45pts 466yds 6.2ypp
Our of curiosity (since I don't know the value of cbb numbers), would you play +3.5-115 or +3-108. I did get a +3.5-110, so this is just for my own info. I assume the +3.5 has better value since it's only 7 cent diff.
It’s really close, but the 3.5 is slight better (maybe by a cent).
Not trying to be an a$$ or pick on you, but I like to see how these kinds of things play out. It can only help to inform future bets.
It's pretty easy to pick out the OT games on something like The Score, so I looked at each one to see how many halftime ties. This ended up happening twice this season - 9/28 UMass at Mia-Oh and 11/16 Sam Hou vs Kennesaw. Making a reasonable estimate of an average 55 games per week for 14 weeks, that's 770 total games. That means the double tie happened 1 in every 385 games this season (about 100 games off my rough estimation). Based on a somewhat relatively small sample size of 1 season, you would need a 400 to 1 payout to make this bet worth it.
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