BWI Sport Betting Thread

MtNittany

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Not trying to be an a$$ or pick on you, but I like to see how these kinds of things play out. It can only help to inform future bets.

It's pretty easy to pick out the OT games on something like The Score, so I looked at each one to see how many halftime ties. This ended up happening twice this season - 9/28 UMass at Mia-Oh and 11/16 Sam Hou vs Kennesaw. Making a reasonable estimate of an average 55 games per week for 14 weeks, that's 770 total games. That means the double tie happened 1 in every 385 games this season (about 100 games off my rough estimation). Based on a somewhat relatively small sample size of 1 season, you would need a 400 to 1 payout to make this bet worth it.
Well, it certainly almost happened in the USC/Nebraska game (I think that was the game) - which was sort of my point. I just bet $10 on Eric Cole to win the PGA Championship (pays $2500). Doesn't mean I think it's going to happen or statistics show it will happen.
 

Grant Green

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Well, it certainly almost happened in the USC/Nebraska game (I think that was the game) - which was sort of my point. I just bet $10 on Eric Cole to win the PGA Championship (pays $2500). Doesn't mean I think it's going to happen or statistics show it will happen.
Almost don't pay. We'll see how it does next season, but I would be surprised if it ever approaches 100 to 1.

Here's another way books give you the shaft. Anyone looking to bet PSU to win the natty at about 6 to 1 (and I think this is probably typical with a lot of futures bets), I'm pretty confident that you get a better payout if you just do a rolling parlay on the PSU moneyline in every game.

If you bet $100 and rolled each bet to the next game....
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MtNittany

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Almost don't pay. We'll see how it does next season, but I would be surprised if it ever approaches 100 to 1.

Here's another way books give you the shaft. Anyone looking to bet PSU to win the natty at about 6 to 1 (and I think this is probably typical with a lot of futures bets), I'm pretty confident that you get a better payout if you just do a rolling parlay on the PSU moneyline in every game.

If you bet $100 and rolled each bet to the next game....
View attachment 717990
Yeah - I get the late to the party futures bets. Until it gets down to maybe the last 3 games, they are terrible bets. The 5 and 10 throwaways for me are like scratch off tickets - of which I've never purchased a single one. Press enter, see what happens. It's like a fun tax w/ HR for me.

I DID place a $100 bet on Army this week - tie for my biggest bet ever. The line just seems low to me. I'm still up around $750 on the year. Will pay some Vet bills and buy some Yueng kegs.
 
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Erial_Lion

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The book's holds on Futures is often criminal. And then when they actually might lose money on one, they publicize the hell out of it and you'll read David Purdham or some other Gambling writer do an article on how badly the book needs Colorado not to win the National Title. It kills me.
 
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Grant Green

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Tis the season to be a little generous.....on the money line if you like an underdog in a bowl game.
Dogs tend to win outright when they cover the spread more often in bowls.
 
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Moogy

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Just happened across this "bad beat" ... now, it may have looked different in person, but how it reads in the espn play-by-play is ...

Houston -29.5 against Toledo

Houston is up 32 with 25 seconds left ... Toledo with the ball

Houston steals the ball and goes for a layup ... missed ... but, offensive rebound ...

So, 32 point lead ... just had an "easy" chance to extend to 34, but missed, and you get the ball back with 19 seconds left, so kick it out and dribble out the clock, right?

Nope.

They attempt a jump shot with 6 seconds left. Missed.

What happens next is unclear ...

Because the next update is Toledo rebound with 1 second left and ...

successful 3-pointer by Toledo to make it a 29 point victory for Houston.

It's a bad enough beat if it was just a meaningless 3 in the final seconds ... but if it was really like a court-length (or 3/4, or even 1/2) grab and heave that went in during the final second ... that's tough.
 

Erial_Lion

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Just happened across this "bad beat" ... now, it may have looked different in person, but how it reads in the espn play-by-play is ...

Houston -29.5 against Toledo

Houston is up 32 with 25 seconds left ... Toledo with the ball

Houston steals the ball and goes for a layup ... missed ... but, offensive rebound ...

So, 32 point lead ... just had an "easy" chance to extend to 34, but missed, and you get the ball back with 19 seconds left, so kick it out and dribble out the clock, right?

Nope.

They attempt a jump shot with 6 seconds left. Missed.

What happens next is unclear ...

Because the next update is Toledo rebound with 1 second left and ...

successful 3-pointer by Toledo to make it a 29 point victory for Houston.

It's a bad enough beat if it was just a meaningless 3 in the final seconds ... but if it was really like a court-length (or 3/4, or even 1/2) grab and heave that went in during the final second ... that's tough.
The “steal” and missed shot was more of a rebound in the paint where the Toledo player started to secure it, got stripped, and the Houston player went right up with it. Houston couldn’t run out the clock after the offensive rebound, there was about a 5 second difference. The three was a couple of feet behind the arc.
 

Grant Green

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Have to post an article if it references Tony from 5D
Betonline has been posting those games at the top of their football page. Not sure I feel that good about it. Taking the morality part out, I don't know if this is a good idea from a public perception standpoint. I think a lot of people are already concerned about the rapid proliferation of sports betting and this probably makes it look worse. Oh yeah, and I find Dave Mason to be a bit of a tool.
 

MtNittany

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On Hard Rock now:

PSU -10.5 (should go up)
Texas -14 (may come down?)
Tosu - 2
UGA -1.5
 

Grant Green

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On Hard Rock now:

PSU -10.5 (should go up)
Texas -14 (may come down?)
Tosu - 2
UGA -1.5
Agree that PSU should be a few points higher and would expect it to move that way. I think the Texas number is about right, but feels high and I can see ASU taking money.
OSU and Uga are a half point higher at bookmaker.eu (sharp book).
 

CDLionFL

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After getting obliterated yesterday with taking every dog in the CFP, I got my revenge today hitting a 7-player TD parlay in the 1:00 games at 71-1. Jamarr Chase TD with 1:45 left sealed it. Massive sweat.
 
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MtNittany

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After getting obliterated yesterday with taking every dog in the CFP, I got my revenge today hitting a 7-player TD parlay in the 1:00 games at 71-1. Jamarr Chase TD with 1:45 left sealed it. Massive sweat.
The only dog I took was a small IU ml bet, and only b/c they've been so good to me. Home field in these 4 games was worth a lot more than a FG. I had all 3 favorites yesterday (TX at -13.5), and live bet both PSU and Tosu like the proverbial monkey on crack.
 

Grant Green

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I didn't get to watch the Steelers game on Saturday. Any Pittsburgh folks have thoughts on how TJ Watt looked with the injury? I see his snap count dropped a bit, but not a ton. Middling stats.
 

Grant Green

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First bad beat of the bowl season for me. U41 in the N Ill game. 13-13 with 4 secs left and Fresno kicker misses a chip shot FG (3rd miss of the game and an XP miss). And OT is where unders go to die. Blech.
 

Grant Green

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Actual bets you can make at betonline.

@Erial_Lion In other markets, thoughts on Chalamet for best actor at +350?
Doesn't the academy love actors that can play instruments and sing the songs?

bets.jpg
 

Grant Green

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Sorry, I'm too busy capping if that Taylor Swift abducted by aliens is a +EV play at +2200.

Any academy awards plays are always purely arbs.
Are you betting several of the best candidates at plus money? Betting both the yes and no at plus money?
 

Grant Green

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CLV play of the day, go Navy at +8 (and sprinkle at +130). What could go wrong?
 

Erial_Lion

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Are you betting several of the best candidates at plus money? Betting both the yes and no at plus money?
It's not something I play regularly (or have this year)...but in the past, when I've played it, I was just basically playing anything that I could find (or more accurately, people pointed out to me) that would beat the Pinny no-vig line. More than anything, it's often been playing bigger favorites that might be -800 at Pinnacle (and -550 on their no-vig), but could be found at -350 elsewhere...those types of things.
 
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Erial_Lion

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CLV play of the day, go Navy at +8 (and sprinkle at +130). What could go wrong?
It's best thing about Bowl Season (and hopefully why this system hangs around for a while in some form). Hard work and research is rewarded, and ridiculous CLV opportunities are hanging out there.
 

MtNittany

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Bumping the thread.

Michigan and Illinois ML's are certainly interesting. Parlaying them (+1900) would be betting on the sudden demise of the SEC in a way.
 

Grant Green

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Bumping the thread.

Michigan and Illinois ML's are certainly interesting. Parlaying them (+1900) would be betting on the sudden demise of the SEC in a way.
Michigan has a bunch of opt outs and Bama potential transfers seem to indicate they are playing. I think Bama may actually show up for this one.

Michigan opt outs
  • DT Mason Graham
  • DE Josiah Stewart
  • CB Will Johnson
  • DL Kenneth Grant
  • TE Colston Loveland
  • RB Donovan Edwards
  • RB Kalel Mullings
  • LT Myles Hinton
Alabama Potential Opt-Outs
  • QB Jalen Milroe (says he'll play)
  • LB Jihaad Campbell (says he'll play)
  • LG Tyler Booker (says he'll play)
  • S Malachi Moore (out with injury)
  • CB Domani Jackson (says he'll play)
  • C Parker Brailsford (returning next year)
I made a play on South Carolina at -9.5, assuming that the line would go up (at -10 now), but I may end up playing the Illinois side (maybe get a small middle opportunity). They have one WR opting out and that's it. SC only seems to have 2 right now (RB Sanders and DE Kennard), but a bunch of other potentials. This does have the feel of a game where the whole world will be on South Carolina and Illinois is just the kind of disgusting dog that I like to play. The line is getting resistance at -10. If it ever goes to 11, Illinois is a likely buy. And if I'm playing a bowl dog, I will play small on the moneyline as well.

Hoping for some Iowa voodoo at +3 (-115) today. Wish I bet it before the vig went up.
 

MtNittany

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Michigan has a bunch of opt outs and Bama potential transfers seem to indicate they are playing. I think Bama may actually show up for this one.

Michigan opt outs
  • DT Mason Graham
  • DE Josiah Stewart
  • CB Will Johnson
  • DL Kenneth Grant
  • TE Colston Loveland
  • RB Donovan Edwards
  • RB Kalel Mullings
  • LT Myles Hinton
Alabama Potential Opt-Outs
  • QB Jalen Milroe (says he'll play)
  • LB Jihaad Campbell (says he'll play)
  • LG Tyler Booker (says he'll play)
  • S Malachi Moore (out with injury)
  • CB Domani Jackson (says he'll play)
  • C Parker Brailsford (returning next year)
I made a play on South Carolina at -9.5, assuming that the line would go up (at -10 now), but I may end up playing the Illinois side (maybe get a small middle opportunity). They have one WR opting out and that's it. SC only seems to have 2 right now (RB Sanders and DE Kennard), but a bunch of other potentials. This does have the feel of a game where the whole world will be on South Carolina and Illinois is just the kind of disgusting dog that I like to play. The line is getting resistance at -10. If it ever goes to 11, Illinois is a likely buy. And if I'm playing a bowl dog, I will play small on the moneyline as well.

Hoping for some Iowa voodoo at +3 (-115) today. Wish I bet it before the vig went up.
I couldn't resist parlaying the IA ML w/ the Under for twenty bucks.
 

Grant Green

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Mental note for next year. Bet the 1Q under of the first bowl on Dec 26 early. I bet it the day before the game this year, but could have gotten a slightly better price. I looked back at the past few years and the 1Q totals went 13, 7, 7, 0, 10, 7, 3, 6 and this year was 8 (O/U was 10).
 

Grant Green

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I couldn't resist parlaying the IA ML w/ the Under for twenty bucks.
Tricky one on the under. Both teams do have some key offensive pieces out. Iowa unders have been one of my most profitable plays over the past few years, but they have been a solid over team this year. 7-3 in their last 10. Fortunately, I got off the train this year when Brian Ferentz left.
Like the ML, but what number?
 
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MtNittany

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Tricky one on the under. Both teams do have some key offensive pieces out. Iowa unders have been one of my most profitable plays over the past few years, but they have been a solid over team this year. 7-3 in their last 10. Fortunately, I got off the train this year when Brian Ferentz left.
Like the ML, but what number?
On Hard Rock, the ML is down to +100. I got +275 on the ML/Under parlay.
 
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LaJollaCreek

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Newcastle is easy money today @Grant Green . I honestly think they will win by 3+ goals and it may be a 5-6 nil game. MU cannot score, defend set pieces, and have no Bruno....this could get ugly.
 
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