BWI Sport Betting Thread

[MtNittany]

Probably because the line is dropping, likely due to whispers that Allar will play. I would almost never take a buyout offer, as the book is likely getting the best of it. Better EV would be to bet OSU for a portion of the original bet if it goes to -2.5 and hope to hit a middle if the game falls 3.

On HR you can take a full cash out offer on anything but a parlay for a few minutes after you place it - sort of a buyer's remorse grace period. I use it sometimes if I realize that I think a line may move or if I just want to do something different. There's no cost.

Edit/cavaet - this of course doesn't usually apply to in game betting and sometimes even close to game time betting. But a day in advance, you'll have time to be able to take it back at no cost unless the line moved.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Probably because the line is dropping, likely due to whispers that Allar will play. I would almost never take a buyout offer, as the book is likely getting the best of it. Better EV would be to bet OSU for a portion of the original bet if it goes to -2.5 and hope to hit a middle if the game falls 3.

And best option is to just do nothing and move along, unless you now think there is value in the OSU side.

 

[MtNittany]

And best option is to just do nothing and move along, unless you now think there is value in the OSU side.

I admit that if I'm watching a game (even w/ a 30 or so second delay) and I get a bad vibe early on, I'll watch for a cash out to lose $5 or $10 instead of $50. Like you said though - stay the course. You'll end up winning more than you think if you just let it play out.

 

[Grant Green]

Like you said though - stay the course. You'll end up winning more than you think if you just let it play out.

Yep. Whatever buyout price they are giving you, it's likely in their favor. IMO, live betting the other side to get out of a bet is sometimes appropriate. Examples, your team takes an early lead and there is a significant injury, or perhaps your team got lucky with some scores and the other team is the clear better side. In this case, you can hopefully get the other side at a better price and still have a chance to middle it (ex. you bet PSU at +3.5 and then get OSU at +3.5 in-game).

 

[MtNittany]

Yep. Whatever buyout price they are giving you, it's likely in their favor. IMO, live betting the other side to get out of a bet is sometimes appropriate. Examples, your team takes an early lead and there is a significant injury, or perhaps your team got lucky with some scores and the other team is the clear better side. In this case, you can hopefully get the other side at a better price and still have a chance to middle it (ex. you bet PSU at +3.5 and then get OSU at +3.5 in-game).

I think I posted last week I live-bet IU -32.5 vs. Nebraska for like $75 and laughed that they even offered it. I think I won $50. I had already won $300 on IU anyway. You can catch some obvious ones.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Yep. Whatever buyout price they are giving you, it's likely in their favor. IMO, live betting the other side to get out of a bet is sometimes appropriate. Examples, your team takes an early lead and there is a significant injury, or perhaps your team got lucky with some scores and the other team is the clear better side. In this case, you can hopefully get the other side at a better price and still have a chance to middle it (ex. you bet PSU at +3.5 and then get OSU at +3.5 in-game).

It’s still never the right mathematical/long term move though, unless the other side itself has value as you’re playing it. What you’ve already bet is done…only give the books more action if you’re making another +EV play on its own.

 

[MtNittany]

It’s still never the right mathematical/long term move though, unless the other side itself has value as you’re playing it. What you’ve already bet is done…only give the books more action if you’re making another +EV play on its own.

You can ladder-ride live bets on a team that you are watching manhandle an opponent and make more in a quarter or a half than you do on 2 other games you researched all week. Granted you'll get more -120's, but when it's obvious what's happening in front of your eyes, why not profit on it?

The conversation in my mind goes "I don't think this is going to be close". Bet more. "There is no way this is going to be close and the line is too low" Bet more. 5 minutes later "The line is still too low" Bet More.

 

[Grant Green]

It’s still never the right mathematical/long term move though, unless the other side itself has value as you’re playing it. What you’ve already bet is done…only give the books more action if you’re making another +EV play on its own.

For sure. I would only do it if I felt the other side is now +EV. For the record, this is a pretty rare play for me.

You can ladder-ride live bets on a team that you are watching manhandle an opponent and make more in a quarter or a half than you do on 2 other games you researched all week. Granted you'll get more -120's, but when it's obvious what's happening in front of your eyes, why not profit on it?

The conversation in my mind goes "I don't think this is going to be close". Bet more. "There is no way this is going to be close and the line is too low" Bet more. 5 minutes later "The line is still too low" Bet More.

I would be very wary of laying -120 in most cases.

 

[CDLionFL]

Tulane FG kicker costing the over 34 1/2 tonight.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Eddie gets to our game at 5:45.

 

[[email protected]]

Tried to post a pic of an article in the Philadelphia Tribune (at phl, thought it was the inquirer I bought. It’s a good daily newspaper).

too big to post it seems

anyway, the total fluke score of 52-14 included a punt return TD, plus 5 td drives of less than 30 yards after 3 turnovers after a long kickoff return and another long punt return.

 

[Grant Green]

Greetings all from one one of my favorite places!

 

[MtNittany]

Noon games: PSU money line, PSU spread, PSU 2nd half spread, Duke, Duke money line (+800), Army

3:30: IU, Navy

 

[Grant Green]

Army QB Daly out.

 

[MtNittany]

Army QB Daly out.

I bet it on Monday. Line has dropped like a stone. No cashout offered.

 

[Grant Green]

I bet it on Monday. Line has dropped like a stone. No cashout offered.

Yep. I was betting air force anyway but down sized my bet. I may be against you on Indiana today. Tough spot for them. Sparty is feisty at home.

 

[Grant Green]

I bet it on Monday. Line has dropped like a stone. No cashout offered.

Probably with you on navy and I'm on psu.

 

[MtNittany]

Army can play D as well. We'll see. I made a vow to them and IU weeks ago.

 

[Grant Green]

Indiana. I'll never doubt you again.

Cignetti on the sideline

 

[Nittering Nabob]

Greetings all from one one of my favorite places!

View attachment 683069

Before clicking on the photo it looked like an In-N-Out Burger.

 

[CDLionFL]

Sigh...another average week at the book...

The Good -- Iowa, Washington, Vandy, and VA Tech choking like they often do

The Bad -- thinking that PSU/OSU would be a slow start...1st half under 23 1/2, game lands 24, thinking Navy would bounce back against a team that lost its coach, thinking Pitt would hang with SMU on the road

The Ugly -- Made money on the Breeders Cup Classic but my trifecta ticket read 1/9 with 1/9/11 with 1/3/9/11/14. The running order came in 11-9-1. I rarely play trifectas and as such, have never hit one. That would have been a great one to hit.

 

[Grant Green]

Sigh...another average week at the book...

The Good -- Iowa, Washington, Vandy, and VA Tech choking like they often do

The Bad -- thinking that PSU/OSU would be a slow start...1st half under 23 1/2, game lands 24, thinking Navy would bounce back against a team that lost its coach, thinking Pitt would hang with SMU on the road

The Ugly -- Made money on the Breeders Cup Classic but my trifecta ticket read 1/9 with 1/9/11 with 1/3/9/11/14. The running order came in 11-9-1. I rarely play trifectas and as such, have never hit one. That would have been a great one to hit.

I had a nice win with your wolfpack today (;

 

[MtNittany]

I'm throwing in the towel for the year (so I say). Last week wasn't disastrous, but it wasn't great. Remember I'm making $20-$100 bets. Not big money.

A few teams saved me some, but the more I bet, it seems the more I get distracted. I was doing great when I would just look at a line and say Huh?

I haven't bet football in 30 years. I came in this season w/ a $150 deposit and left w/ exactly $1000 in profit (which was my goal). I promised myself if I reached that, I'd never make another deposit again. I still have around $45 in my HR account and will probably bet it on IU. I also have outstanding bets on IU winning the B1G and National Championship.

So if IU rolls on, I'll roll on.

It's fun, and I understand the sharks and their analytics, but I never wanted to get into that. That sounds like a job. I look at it like playing mini-golf. You think you see the best line to hit the putt on, then you just hit it and hope it bounces your way.

For those curious - I think the IU national championship bet was $5 to win $1300. The current cash out is $30.

Here's a cap. Vegas believes in Cig obviously.

 

[1995PSUGrad]

I admit that if I'm watching a game (even w/ a 30 or so second delay) and I get a bad vibe early on, I'll watch for a cash out to lose $5 or $10 instead of $50. Like you said though - stay the course. You'll end up winning more than you think if you just let it play out.

I will sometimes cash out when I realize that my bet is lost. Usually I don't get much of a payout, but it's better than losing the entire amount. Every time that I have cashed out the game ended as I expected and I would have lost the bet, so it has allowed me to recoup a percentage of my loss.

 

[CDLionFL]

1 college hoops bet made, 1 college hoops bet won. We're off and running!!

 

[LionJim]

1 college hoops bet made, 1 college hoops bet won. We're off and running!!

I would think that betting on college hoops is more iffy than betting CFB. Idle curiosity.

 

[CDLionFL]

I would think that betting on college hoops is more iffy than betting CFB. Idle curiosity.

It's very perilous doing it on the first day of the season or even within the first 3 weeks of the season. But this one I live bet at halftime after watching the first half so at least I had some basis. I'm trying to not make the same mistakes I've made in the past by picking games involving teams I haven't seen anything of or read anything about. Sometimes those work, many times they haven't.

 

[Grant Green]

I would think that betting on college hoops is more iffy than betting CFB. Idle curiosity.

I believe for guys like @Erial_Lion who do a lot of homework on cbb, this is one of the most profitable periods in any sport. Boomakers have a ton of games to post and it takes them a few weeks to dial in power ratings. If a bettor can find those games where bookmakers are off the line, they stand to do very well.

College sports are more volatile, but the pro lines are much tighter and harder to beat overall.

 

[MtNittany]

College sports are more volatile, but the pro lines are much tighter and harder to beat overall.

I agree. And you accused me of loving chalk (which is sort of true), but all year the Tue-Fri and Sat games w/ teams no one cares about (other than espn on Thu and B1G on Fri) offered games that just made it almost easy. Give me anyone w/ a pulse over Charlotte (as an example) -7.5 before I guess on NFL. I placed one bet yesterday. Giants team under 20.5. Of course they somehow stitched together 22 points. If not for the Panthers, one would do just as well at the roulette wheel probably wrt the nfl unless they are really schooled and tested.

 

[Grant Green]

I agree. And you accused me of loving chalk (which is sort of true), but all year the Tue-Fri and Sat games w/ teams no one cares about (other than espn on Thu and B1G on Fri) offered games that just made it almost easy. Give me anyone w/ a pulse over Charlotte (as an example) -7.5 before I guess on NFL. I placed one bet yesterday. Giants team under 20.5. Of course they somehow stitched together 22 points. If not for the Panthers, one would do just as well at the roulette wheel probably wrt the nfl unless they are really schooled and tested.

I've heard the NFL called betting plinko - an exaggeration perhaps but man it seems like so many games come down to the last possession.
Not an accusation on the chalk, just an observation. In my experience, most folks start out by leaning heavily on favorites. Those that improve and learn tend to mix in a lot more dogs.
Those Tues-Fri games may seem almost easy, but then repeat that success over hundreds of bets over years. It's never that easy.

 

[MtNittany]

Those Tues-Fri games may seem almost easy, but then repeat that success over hundreds of bets over years. It's never that easy.

Yeah. I had a run. I recognize it as such. It's strange that picking an Ivy game pays the same as picking UGA/ALA. Not strange, just something to remember I guess.

 

[Grant Green]

Yeah. I had a run. I recognize it as such. It's strange that picking an Ivy game pays the same as picking UGA/ALA. Not strange, just something to remember I guess.

Yep, except you can't get as high limits on Ivy league games (not a problem for you and I, but could be for others here). And the line is a LOT tighter for UGA vs Bama. I'd rather bet Sun Belt games.
It's so awesome being on a good run when it feels like you just can hit almost anything. Then it sucks hard when you go on a losing streak and all the good bets (like great line moves in your favor) still lose. Every bounce seems to go against you. It can be quite maddening. If you get out without experiencing something like that, more power to you.

 

[Grant Green]

USC covers vs Rutgers, IU covers vs UW, Oregon covers vs Illinois.
B10 traveling 2+ times zones now 5-14 ATS.

bonus note- BC did cover in the Louisville sandwich spot.

Update. Oregon covers at UM in the only 2+ TZ game this week. I will say, this was close. Oregon somewhat controversially punched in a TD in the remaining seconds to cover after UM had clearly thrown in the white flag (stopped calling TOs). For most of the 2nd half, this game was right around the number of 14.

6-14 ATS.

This week Iowa goes to UCLA, Maryland goes to Oregon, and UW comes to PSU. My unsubstantiated memory of the recent past is that JF is terrible at covering the spread (or even winning) the week after OSU/disappointing losses, so careful on that one.

I'm back on that Indiana (-14 -105) train again. Will be a huge public play I'm sure, but that doesn't bother me. Probably against OSU as well, but let's see what that number is.

 

[Nittering Nabob]

Update. Oregon covers at UM in the only 2+ TZ game this week. I will say, this was close. Oregon somewhat controversially punched in a TD in the remaining seconds to cover after UM had clearly thrown in the white flag (stopped calling TOs). For most of the 2nd half, this game was right around the number of 14.

6-14 ATS.

This week Iowa goes to UCLA, Maryland goes to Oregon, and UW comes to PSU. My unsubstantiated memory of the recent past is that JF is terrible at covering the spread (or even winning) the week after OSU/disappointing losses, so careful on that one.

I'm back on that Indiana (-14 -105) train again. Will be a huge public play I'm sure, but that doesn't bother me. Probably against OSU as well, but let's see what that number is.

I, too, think OSU will struggle a bit this week.

 

[Grant Green]

I, too, think OSU will struggle a bit this week.

Sorry. I meant I am likely betting on Indiana against OSU in a few weeks.
Purdue has given OSU issues in the past, but not sure about on the road.