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BWI Sport Betting Thread

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Erial_Lion

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Most of the ones I've shared picked up some good CLV, but we saw some market disagreement on the St Thomas over yesterday (but came away with a fortunate result). Here is one for tonight (8pm Eastern) that I assume won't have any CLV based on the timing...

Pacific/Arkansas under 149.5

Note on this one...Usually, I care more about the CLV than the result itself, since that's what will give the better indication on if i'm making +EV plays. However, the type of play I'm willing to make in large markets that I know won't see any CLV is plays close to gametime on games that have moved into my range for a play.
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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Erial_Lion said:
Most of the ones I've shared picked up some good CLV, but we saw some market disagreement on the St Thomas over yesterday (but came away with a fortunate result). Here is one for tonight (8pm Eastern) that I assume won't have any CLV based on the timing...

Pacific/Arkansas under 149.5

Note on this one...Usually, I care more about the CLV than the result itself, since that's what will give the better indication on if i'm making +EV plays. However, the type of play I'm willing to make in large markets that I know won't see any CLV is plays close to gametime on games that have moved into my range for a play.
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I was wondering when an under was coming. Do you ever consider the effect of both teams playing in a foreign environment (preseason tournys) for game totals? Maybe more in the first half as teams adjust to a different court/surroundings?
 
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Erial_Lion

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Grant Green said:
I was wondering when an under was coming. Do you ever consider the effect of both teams playing in a foreign environment (preseason tournys) for game totals? Maybe more in the first half as teams adjust to a different court/surroundings?
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I've taken it into account in varying degrees throughout the years. These days, the only thing I care too much about is teams playing in those huge football stadiums...but at that point in the season, not much is getting by anyone so it's already going to be baked into the line. But I don't think I'd ever play an over in those places since it does usually have an impact on outside shooting since depth perception is brutal (heck, I used to play some pickup games in the BJC and for me, depth perception even in that environment was so weird).
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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Erial_Lion said:
But I don't think I'd ever play an over in those places since it does usually have an impact on outside shooting since depth perception is brutal (heck, I used to play some pickup games in the BJC and for me, depth perception even in that environment was so weird).
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Yeah, that's where I was going. Unders where outside shooting could be affected by a foreign environment. The big stadium effect makes sense.
 
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Moogy

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Erial_Lion said:
I've taken it into account in varying degrees throughout the years. These days, the only thing I care too much about is teams playing in those huge football stadiums...but at that point in the season, not much is getting by anyone so it's already going to be baked into the line. But I don't think I'd ever play an over in those places since it does usually have an impact on outside shooting since depth perception is brutal (heck, I used to play some pickup games in the BJC and for me, depth perception even in that environment was so weird).
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Since you appear to be the CBB guru, I was wondering if there are any metrics on how close the O/U line typically ends up being to the actual final score? My curiosity was piqued tonight ... I just happened to notice a very low O/U line on North Texas v. McNeese. It was 128.5. Because it was so low, I decided to loosely follow the game ... first half was only 51 points (so on a pace way under) ... but then it was 67-61 (so 0.5 under the line) with 9 seconds left when there was a foul, and the foul shooter made 1 of 2 to make it 68-61, so the over won by 0.5 point.

It would have made for some real drama in another otherwise bleh game with bleh teams playing if there was money riding on it.

How often does the O/U line get within a couple/few points of the actual game outcome?
 
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Erial_Lion

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Moogy said:
Since you appear to be the CBB guru, I was wondering if there are any metrics on how close the O/U line typically ends up being to the actual final score? My curiosity was piqued tonight ... I just happened to notice a very low O/U line on North Texas v. McNeese. It was 128.5. Because it was so low, I decided to loosely follow the game ... first half was only 51 points (so on a pace way under) ... but then it was 67-61 (so 0.5 under the line) with 9 seconds left when there was a foul, and the foul shooter made 1 of 2 to make it 68-61, so the over won by 0.5 point.

It would have made for some real drama in another otherwise bleh game with bleh teams playing if there was money riding on it.

How often does the O/U line get within a couple/few points of the actual game outcome?
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There are factors at play like the point spread and how high the total is (lower the total, the higher chance it will be close).

Here is an article with some general basketball push percentages…

The Distribution of Totals for Betting Basketball - DRatings

We delve into the nuances of totals betting in basketball, a topic that fascinates both seasoned bettors and newcomers alike.
www.dratings.com www.dratings.com

And though you didn’t ask, here is an article from several years ago from Pomeroy covering the distribution of college basketball final spreads (I find this stuff really interesting)…

 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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BAD BEAT ALERT!
Got home after a rough afternoon on Saturday to watch the 2nd half of this brutal SJST (+14) loss. I was pushing at the end with +14, so not a total beat.
SVP sums up my feelings. I pretty much get one of these extra bad beats every year (2 last year) and it helps to share my misery. Fortunately, I did win a Kansas bet around the same time that probably should have lost (BYU luck had to turn at some point).

 
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Erial_Lion

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Grant Green said:
BAD BEAT ALERT!
Got home after a rough afternoon on Saturday to watch the 2nd half of this brutal SJST (+14) loss. I was pushing at the end with +14, so not a total beat.
SVP sums up my feelings. I pretty much get one of these extra bad beats every year (2 last year) and it helps to share my misery. Fortunately, I did win a Kansas bet around the same time that probably should have lost (BYU luck had to turn at some point).

Click to expand...

I almost posted last night after watching it that it might have been the best Bad Beats segment ever…Steve’s inability to keep it together at the end made it.
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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Erial_Lion said:
I almost posted last night after watching it that it might have been the best Bad Beats segment ever…Steve’s inability to keep it together at the end made it.
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I'm happy to be a part of it! The Kent State vs Ball State one was pretty damn good too.
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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Flu bug at USC https://247sports.com/college/usc/a...ad-ucla-rivalry-game-lincoln-riley-240060422/
I was already contemplating UCLA at +5. This will likely induce further capping. USC does have big pass/rush success advantages over UCLA, as well as finishing drives advantage.

Lookahead spots
Michigan plays NW this week and has Ohio State on deck. I'm not counting this as a lookahead for OSU since they play IU. Not sure I can get there with NW on the road, but perhaps a look at the under since both defenses hold advantages. EDIT: Michigan is off a bye, but previously played MSU, Oregon, and Indiana.

NC State plays UNC next week.
NC st is at GT (-8.5) this week. It's senior day for GT who is trying to go undefeated at their home stadium (they played ND at a neutral) for only the 3rd time in 50 years. A win will also give them a winning ACC record, which has not happened much in the past 10+ years. They seem motivated. I bet it already.

UNC is at BC (+3). I may have been wrong about the change at QB for BC. Grayson James looked good last week. I did bet BC when it hit +3.5.

Texas plays TAM next week in a game that should decide who goes to the SEC title game. This game has been hyped for a long time by both teams.
Texas is a 20.5 pt fav vs Kentucky. Kentucky has looked bad at times this year, but has covered vs it's 3 highest rates opp (UGA, Tenn, Ole Miss)
TAM only a 2.5 pt fav at an up and down Auburn team.
 
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Erial_Lion

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www.espn.com

Ex-Temple guard in federal point-shaving inquiry

Federal authorities are investigating whether former Temple men's basketball player Hysier Miller bet on his own games and manipulated the outcome of Owls games he played in, according to multiple sources.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

This might have been the worst ever point shaving attempt…everyone was calling it out on social media that day. Glad they got to the bottom of it (and another instance where legalized gambling helped root it out).
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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Erial_Lion said:
www.espn.com

Ex-Temple guard in federal point-shaving inquiry

Federal authorities are investigating whether former Temple men's basketball player Hysier Miller bet on his own games and manipulated the outcome of Owls games he played in, according to multiple sources.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

This might have been the worst ever point shaving attempt…everyone was calling it out on social media that day. Glad they got to the bottom of it (and another instance where legalized gambling helped root it out).
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It's not as easy as people think to pull shenanagins in the betting market. Books monitor the **** out of betting patterns. It was easier when people had to bet with bookies.

"Sportsbooks had alerted U.S. Integrity, a Las Vegas firm that monitors the betting market, to unusual line movement and suspicious wagering patterns on a March 7 regular-season game between Temple and UAB."
"Bookmakers noticed that the same customers who bet against Temple in the UAB game had been wagering on other games involving the Owls, often making wagers on the result and the total points scored in the first half, according to gambling industry sources."
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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MtNittany said:
I got it at 11.5 early in the week. Was worried it was going to go way up. Happy w/ what I got I guess. Also have the money line at 4-1.
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During the season I was hoping this number would be 14+. I have this line right around 11.5, so I'm not seeing as much value. Actually, if it were to dip below 10, I would consider taking Ohio State. It's been a fun ride on the IU train, but I'm not sure what to expect vs OSU - the IU team that played Michigan in the 1st half or 2nd half. There are plenty of other good bets on the board, so I'm leaving this one alone at the current number (which seems to be -10.5 now).
 
MtNittany

MtNittany

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Grant Green said:
During the season I was hoping this number would be 14+. I have this line right around 11.5, so I'm not seeing as much value. Actually, if it were to dip below 10, I would consider taking Ohio State. It's been a fun ride on the IU train, but I'm not sure what to expect vs OSU - the IU team that played Michigan in the 1st half or 2nd half. There are plenty of other good bets on the board, so I'm leaving this one alone at the current number (which seems to be -10.5 now).
Click to expand...
Take former recruiting rankings and stars out of this, and IU should be getting a FG. But I digress.

Cignetti's practice speeches this week must've been epic. He's got this.
 
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Erial_Lion

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MtNittany said:
Take former recruiting rankings and stars out of this, and IU should be getting a FG. But I digress.

Cignetti's practice speeches this week must've been epic. He's got this.
Click to expand...
Ohio St would be favored by at least a FG over every other team in the country at home tomorrow I'd assume. Why should the spread be that close?
 
MtNittany

MtNittany

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Erial_Lion said:
Ohio St would be favored by at least a FG over every other team in the country at home tomorrow I'd assume. Why should the spread be that close?
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I should have phrased it this way - take the brand names off the teams and the 4,5 star rankings away, and look at records of Team A and Team B, and common opponents, and it would be closer to a FG. JMO of course.
 
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Grant Green

Grant Green

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Watching this Temple vs UTSA game. May be worth a live bet on UTSA. Temple with 2 flukey turnovers and have been outgained 238 to 11.
It's only 14-3, so a live -20 could be in play.
 
MtNittany

MtNittany

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Grant Green said:
Watching this Temple vs UTSA game. May be worth a live bet on UTSA. Temple with 2 flukey turnovers and have been outgained 238 to 11.
It's only 14-3, so a live -20 could be in play.
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I had the Over, and Purdue parlayed w/ the Under in their game. Hard to believe I won 2 bets involving Temple and Purdue.

IU, IU ml, ILL, and PSU today.
 
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CDLionFL

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Rolling with Colorado, Stanford, Wisky, Houston, aTm today off a nice 5-2 college hoops night. Hopefully, nothing in the ‘ugly’ column on this Saturday for any of us.
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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Moogy said:
No real wind in Boston. Intermittent rain. Coulda just asked me.
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Every single weather outlet says 20 mph plus wind. That's usually pretty trustworthy. I start looking at unders at anything over about 15.

Going forward,you will be my boston weather correspondent.

Edit. It doesn't look that windy but broadcastet had now made 2 comments about wind.
 
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Moogy

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Grant Green said:
Every single weather outlet says 20 mph plus wind. That's usually pretty trustworthy. I start looking at unders at anything over about 15.

Going forward,you will be my boston weather correspondent.

Edit. It doesn't look that windy but broadcastet had now made 2 comments about wind.
Click to expand...

There are gusts here or there. More time when there is no breeze at all than there is what you'd call "windy" conditions. This is typical up here ... it's not that big a deal. Wind gusts are starting to pick up more now, actually ... but, yeah ... typical fall-into-winter football weather. Pretty tame. They had predicted winds, but we know by now that those are guesstimates.
 
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Erial_Lion

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Since it's the first time I'm playing one of our games this season, figured I'd share...

Fordham/Penn St over 149.5 (some 149 out there too)

I'll be shocked if there isn't some market agreement to push this one higher.
 
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Grant Green

Grant Green

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I am surprised to see Kansas as an underdog again. 5 win team playing great football right now. I took 1.5.
I'm riding the other hot SEC teams, SC and Vandy.
 
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CDLionFL

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Erial_Lion said:
Since it's the first time I'm playing one of our games this season, figured I'd share...

Fordham/Penn St over 149.5 (some 149 out there too)

I'll be shocked if there isn't some market agreement to push this one higher.
Click to expand...
PSU's team total has cleared in every game this season. Hard Rock has it at 83 1/2 right now. Game total now at 150.
 
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