BWI Sport Betting Thread

[Nittering Nabob]

There's a thing going around about big 10 teams traveling 2+ time zones. 1-8 ats so far this season. Small sample size but holding true so far in iowa.
Looking at UCLA +4 vs Minny later today. Hope psu can buck the trend.

And Washington struggled against the run-heavy Rutgers team.

 

[Grant Green]

And Washington struggled against the run-heavy Rutgers team.

Yeah, kind of. That was one of the most misleading finals of the season. Washington outgained rutgers 521 to 299. They should have won and covered. Special teams killed them.

 

[MtNittany]

Saved most of my PSU bets w/ PSU 2nd half spread bets. Came real close to betting the money line at half. Army is just a well oiled machine.

 

[CDLionFL]

Yesterday's facepalm-inducing wagering:

The Good -- Guardians, BYU, and LSU
The Bad -- Pitt, Oklahoma, WVU
The Ugly -- when SC went up 19-14, I hit the live bet for Bama -2 1/2. Hilariously unfortunate.

On to the NFL. Already blew it with the Seahawks on Thursday night. Currently have Bears, under, and Jags team under working.

 

[MtNittany]

L/P: PSU -3, PSU -4, Tennessee -6.5, Tosu -.5 2nd half
W: PSU -1.5 2nd half, KSU +2.5, Syracuse -1, ISU -3, NM -10.5, BYU -3

 

[LionJim]

L: PSU -3, PSU -4, Tennessee -6.5, Tosu -.5 2nd half
W: PSU -1.5 2nd half, KSU +2.5, Syracuse -1, ISU -3, NM -10.5, BYU -3

So you’re ahead for the weekend? (Is it bad form to ask, bringing in the jinx factor?)

 

[MtNittany]

So you’re ahead for the weekend? (Is it bad form to ask, bringing in the jinx factor?)

Around $400 or so, yup.

 

[Grant Green]

Yesterday's facepalm-inducing wagering:

The Good -- Guardians, BYU, and LSU
The Bad -- Pitt, Oklahoma, WVU
The Ugly -- when SC went up 19-14, I hit the live bet for Bama -2 1/2. Hilariously unfortunate.

On to the NFL. Already blew it with the Seahawks on Thursday night. Currently have Bears, under, and Jags team under working.

I had Pitt as well and that was maddening. They were kind of in control and then scored zero points in 2H. Gotta give Cal a lot of credit. I thought they would fade as the game went on after that Miami game and lots of recent travel.
Was with you on LSU. that was a sweat! Somewhat fortunate victory but I'll take it.

 

[Grant Green]

Look ahead spots this week. These shouldn't be auto bets, but are intended to factor into your handicap.

Syracuse (-4) at NC State
Syracuse is off a fairly big win vs UNLV and plays ranked Pitt next week. I actually like NC State here, even without McCall and this is starting to get bet down to 3.5
LOSS
Louisville (-7.5) at UVA
Louisville plays Miami next week
WIN
Florida (+15.5) at Tennessee
South Carolina (+21.5) at Bama
UT plays Bama next week. While Florida is typically a big game, some look ahead is probably in play for Bama
WIN-WIN
Miss St (-33.5) at UGA
Texas (-14) vs OU
UGA plays Texas next week. Same deal as UF vs UT, Texas vs OU is a big game, but this year I think UGA is bigger.
WIN-LOSS
GA tech (-4.5) at UNC
GA Tech plays ND next week
LOSS
Purdue (+19.5) at Illinois
Illinois plays Michigan next week (Purdue is on the no-bet list for me)-WIN

Grading the look ahead spots. A win is betting against the team with look ahead
5-3

 

[Grant Green]

Opening Lines
Louisville -7 at UVA seems much too low-LINE STAYED SAME, L
JMU vs CC at -9.5 a few points too low-LINE MOVED AGAINST PROJECTION -W
Kentucky -12 vs Vandy - a little overreaction on Vandy? I got more like -17.-LINE MOVED TOWARD PROJECTION AND FINISHED WHERE IT STARTED-L
Rutgers -2.5 vs Wisky seems like it should be closer to pick. LINE MOVED TO WISKY - W
Memphis -6.5 vs USF a bit too high. MESSY DATA POINT DUE TO HURRICANE - NOT COUNTING THIS ONE
UGA and Army both giving too many points, but not sure I'd step in front of either next weekend (UGA does have look ahead to UT though) W, L

PSU -5 at USC may be a touch high, but PSU is pretty dominant in a number of advanced stat comparison. NOT OFFICIALLY PART OF THE OPENING LINES, BUT THIS WOULD BE A WIN

Grading opening lines 3-3

 

[MtNittany]

Grading opening lines 3-3

Grant, how do you see the UNL @ IU line moving in the next few days? HR has it at IU -5 right now.

 

[Grant Green]

Grant, how do you see the UNL @ IU line moving in the next few days? HR has it at IU -5 right now.

Well, I do have IU at-7.5.
5 is a dead number so let's see where it goes. I'm inclined to stay on the IU train going forward until the lines get too high.
Cignetti seems to be like JF and try to cover spreads late in games.

 

[MtNittany]

Well, I do have IU at-7.5.
5 is a dead number so let's see where it goes. I'm inclined to stay on the IU train going forward until the lines get too high.
Cignetti seems to be like JF and try to cover spreads late in games.

I bet it at 5. Still there.

 

[[email protected]]

Intuitively, I would think that would happen more often than 1 in 10,000 games (meaning value) but you never know.
You could get @LionJim to figure out the probability of both events and then multiply them together to get the probability of both happening. That said, you may have to bet this hundreds, if not thousands of times before it pays off. You could eat through a bankroll of say $1000, easily before you ever hit.

It was +10000 not 10000-1

edited today I’m way late but will add it’s a bad bet at +10000 but a fabulous bet at 10000-1

 

[MtNittany]

It was +10000 not 10000-1

edited today I’m way late but will add it’s a bad bet at +10000 but a fabulous bet at 10000-1

It wasn't that bad of a bet considering it took a replay official to stop it from hitting at the end of the game. Just sayin'.

 

[MtNittany]

Jags (why?) - L
Falcons x2 - W
Packers - W
Steelers - W
Titans - Cashed out

Tonight
O 46
1st 1/4 O 9.5