BWI Sport Betting Thread

[CDLionFL]

Hmmm. I think it would be too risky for the books to assume the USF game would get moved. Maybe a disruption in practice would have an effect on the spread. It's possible that I've overvalued USF based on their competitive game vs Bama.

When I saw Diego was moving to Vandy this season, I marked them as a bet-on team. Of course, the GA State game was the only time I bet on them and then got spooked on the next 2 games. I hate betting against him, but if there is a time to do it, it's now.

I just saw that Memphis is AT USF on Friday night. I don't think there's a chance in hell of them playing that game on that night.

 

[Grant Green]

Yeah, I should have put "at" USF in my OP. If the hurricane hits where predicted as a CAT 5, I would also doubt that game would get played. I would hope they would decide that by Tuesday or early Wednesday.

 

[MtNittany]

Yeah, I should have put "at" USF in my OP. If the hurricane hits where predicted as a CAT 5, I would also doubt that game would get played. I would hope they would decide that by Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Grant - what do you think of little $5 bets like I posted above (USC @ MN) if you can find them? It's a weird feeling w/ me and Hard Rock. I've taken out more than I deposited, and will take out more. The balance is like free money even though it's my money.

 

[Grant Green]

Grant - what do you think of little $5 bets like I posted above (USC @ MN) if you can find them? It's a weird feeling w/ me and Hard Rock. I've taken out more than I deposited, and will take out more. The balance is like free money even though it's my money.

I'm guessing you mean small money bets with huge payouts? I think any bet for any amount of money is a good bet if the payout is better than your perceived chances of it happening. If you make a bet that pays 100 to 1, and you think/calculate that it has a 3% chance of happening, it's a great bet. That may take a boatload of data mining to figure out if it's actually a good value. Without having any tangible evidence, my guess is that most of the high payout exotic bets being offered are probably in the sports books favor (kind of like betting snake eyes at a craps table).

In regard to money management. I'm not sure how long you've been betting but if you do it long enough you are going to have big bankroll swings. When I first start betting seriously in 2016, I was something like 58% on college football over a season and I thought I was the ****. After some ups and downs maintaining an somewhat constant balance, I had a terrible run and lost most of my previous winnings. If you are doing it for fun, I would recommend leaving any winnings in the account because there will be losing streaks and some could be bad. Winning money at sports betting over the long run is really hard and the percentage of people that can do it is relatively small.

 

[MtNittany]

I'm guessing you mean small money bets with huge payouts? I think any bet for any amount of money is a good bet if the payout is better than your perceived chances of it happening. If you make a bet that pays 100 to 1, and you think/calculate that it has a 3% chance of happening, it's a great bet. That may take a boatload of data mining to figure out if it's actually a good value. Without having any tangible evidence, my guess is that most of the high payout exotic bets being offered are probably in the sports books favor (kind of like betting snake eyes at a craps table).

In regard to money management. I'm not sure how long you've been betting but if you do it long enough you are going to have big bankroll swings. When I first start betting seriously in 2016, I was something like 58% on college football over a season and I thought I was the ****. After some ups and downs maintaining an somewhat constant balance, I had a terrible run and lost most of my previous winnings. If you are doing it for fun, I would recommend leaving any winnings in the account because there will be losing streaks and some could be bad. Winning money at sports betting over the long run is really hard and the percentage of people that can do it is relatively small.

It was a 10000-1 bet on USC and MN being tied at both the half and end of regulation. I see stuff like that and it's better than a lottery ticket. It actually has a chance of happening.

 

[Grant Green]

It was a 10000-1 bet on USC and MN being tied at both the half and end of regulation. I see stuff like that and it's better than a lottery ticket. It actually has a chance of happening.

Intuitively, I would think that would happen more often than 1 in 10,000 games (meaning value) but you never know.
You could get @LionJim to figure out the probability of both events and then multiply them together to get the probability of both happening. That said, you may have to bet this hundreds, if not thousands of times before it pays off. You could eat through a bankroll of say $1000, easily before you ever hit.

 

[MtNittany]

Intuitively, I would think that would happen more often than 1 in 10,000 games (meaning value) but you never know.
You could get @LionJim to figure out the probability of both events and then multiply them together to get the probability of both happening. That said, you may have to bet this hundreds, if not thousands of times before it pays off. You could eat through a bankroll of say $1000, easily before you ever hit.

I think the odds are off. Not my bet or my management. Look at lines just under 10 pts with competitive teams. Is a first half tie out of the question? Of course not. Is OT out of the question? If the first half was tied, why couldn't the 2nd half be tied? 100-1? I'm betting at most 2 of these a week for either $5 or $10 each.

 

[Grant Green]

I think the odds are off. Not my bet or my management. Look at lines just under 10 pts with competitive teams. Is a first half tie out of the question? Of course not. Is OT out of the question? If the first half was tied, why couldn't the 2nd half be tied? 100-1? I'm betting at most 2 of these a week for either $5 or $10 each.

Understood, but you have to quantify it and not just conclude that it is not "out of the question". Using a very small sample size of this past weekend, I count 5 games that were tied at half and 1 game that went to OT out of 49 total games. (Note, the 1 game that went to OT was not tied at half and the 5 that were tied at half did not go to OT).

1/49 = 2.04%
5/49 = 10.2%

Probability of both occurring = 0.0204 x 0.102 = 0.0021 (or 0.21%). That means you would expect to see this once in every ~480 games. There is probably some small correlation to both happening, so that the probability of OT is a little higher if the game is tied at half. So, maybe it's more like 1 in every 400 to 425 games. Yes, it seems likely that the odds are off and it is a good bet. However, are you willing to make this wager hundreds of times before you get a payoff? At $5 per bet, that could easily take $1000+ of bankroll to hit. If you are comfortable with that, go for it.