BWI Sport Betting Thread

[CDLionFL]

Hmmm. I think it would be too risky for the books to assume the USF game would get moved. Maybe a disruption in practice would have an effect on the spread. It's possible that I've overvalued USF based on their competitive game vs Bama.

When I saw Diego was moving to Vandy this season, I marked them as a bet-on team. Of course, the GA State game was the only time I bet on them and then got spooked on the next 2 games. I hate betting against him, but if there is a time to do it, it's now.

I just saw that Memphis is AT USF on Friday night. I don't think there's a chance in hell of them playing that game on that night.

 

[Grant Green]

Yeah, I should have put "at" USF in my OP. If the hurricane hits where predicted as a CAT 5, I would also doubt that game would get played. I would hope they would decide that by Tuesday or early Wednesday.

 

[MtNittany]

Yeah, I should have put "at" USF in my OP. If the hurricane hits where predicted as a CAT 5, I would also doubt that game would get played. I would hope they would decide that by Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Grant - what do you think of little $5 bets like I posted above (USC @ MN) if you can find them? It's a weird feeling w/ me and Hard Rock. I've taken out more than I deposited, and will take out more. The balance is like free money even though it's my money.

 

[Grant Green]

Grant - what do you think of little $5 bets like I posted above (USC @ MN) if you can find them? It's a weird feeling w/ me and Hard Rock. I've taken out more than I deposited, and will take out more. The balance is like free money even though it's my money.

I'm guessing you mean small money bets with huge payouts? I think any bet for any amount of money is a good bet if the payout is better than your perceived chances of it happening. If you make a bet that pays 100 to 1, and you think/calculate that it has a 3% chance of happening, it's a great bet. That may take a boatload of data mining to figure out if it's actually a good value. Without having any tangible evidence, my guess is that most of the high payout exotic bets being offered are probably in the sports books favor (kind of like betting snake eyes at a craps table).

In regard to money management. I'm not sure how long you've been betting but if you do it long enough you are going to have big bankroll swings. When I first start betting seriously in 2016, I was something like 58% on college football over a season and I thought I was the ****. After some ups and downs maintaining an somewhat constant balance, I had a terrible run and lost most of my previous winnings. If you are doing it for fun, I would recommend leaving any winnings in the account because there will be losing streaks and some could be bad. Winning money at sports betting over the long run is really hard and the percentage of people that can do it is relatively small.

 

[MtNittany]

I'm guessing you mean small money bets with huge payouts? I think any bet for any amount of money is a good bet if the payout is better than your perceived chances of it happening. If you make a bet that pays 100 to 1, and you think/calculate that it has a 3% chance of happening, it's a great bet. That may take a boatload of data mining to figure out if it's actually a good value. Without having any tangible evidence, my guess is that most of the high payout exotic bets being offered are probably in the sports books favor (kind of like betting snake eyes at a craps table).

In regard to money management. I'm not sure how long you've been betting but if you do it long enough you are going to have big bankroll swings. When I first start betting seriously in 2016, I was something like 58% on college football over a season and I thought I was the ****. After some ups and downs maintaining an somewhat constant balance, I had a terrible run and lost most of my previous winnings. If you are doing it for fun, I would recommend leaving any winnings in the account because there will be losing streaks and some could be bad. Winning money at sports betting over the long run is really hard and the percentage of people that can do it is relatively small.

It was a 10000-1 bet on USC and MN being tied at both the half and end of regulation. I see stuff like that and it's better than a lottery ticket. It actually has a chance of happening.

 

[Grant Green]

It was a 10000-1 bet on USC and MN being tied at both the half and end of regulation. I see stuff like that and it's better than a lottery ticket. It actually has a chance of happening.

Intuitively, I would think that would happen more often than 1 in 10,000 games (meaning value) but you never know.
You could get @LionJim to figure out the probability of both events and then multiply them together to get the probability of both happening. That said, you may have to bet this hundreds, if not thousands of times before it pays off. You could eat through a bankroll of say $1000, easily before you ever hit.

 

[MtNittany]

Intuitively, I would think that would happen more often than 1 in 10,000 games (meaning value) but you never know.
You could get @LionJim to figure out the probability of both events and then multiply them together to get the probability of both happening. That said, you may have to bet this hundreds, if not thousands of times before it pays off. You could eat through a bankroll of say $1000, easily before you ever hit.

I think the odds are off. Not my bet or my management. Look at lines just under 10 pts with competitive teams. Is a first half tie out of the question? Of course not. Is OT out of the question? If the first half was tied, why couldn't the 2nd half be tied? 100-1? I'm betting at most 2 of these a week for either $5 or $10 each.

 

[Grant Green]

I think the odds are off. Not my bet or my management. Look at lines just under 10 pts with competitive teams. Is a first half tie out of the question? Of course not. Is OT out of the question? If the first half was tied, why couldn't the 2nd half be tied? 100-1? I'm betting at most 2 of these a week for either $5 or $10 each.

Understood, but you have to quantify it and not just conclude that it is not "out of the question". Using a very small sample size of this past weekend, I count 5 games that were tied at half and 1 game that went to OT out of 49 total games. (Note, the 1 game that went to OT was not tied at half and the 5 that were tied at half did not go to OT).

1/49 = 2.04%
5/49 = 10.2%

Probability of both occurring = 0.0204 x 0.102 = 0.0021 (or 0.21%). That means you would expect to see this once in every ~480 games. There is probably some small correlation to both happening, so that the probability of OT is a little higher if the game is tied at half. So, maybe it's more like 1 in every 400 to 425 games. Yes, it seems likely that the odds are off and it is a good bet. However, are you willing to make this wager hundreds of times before you get a payoff? At $5 per bet, that could easily take $1000+ of bankroll to hit. If you are comfortable with that, go for it.

Addendum: I'm slow today, so I just looked at all the results in Week 1-6. I count 14 OT games and only 1 of those was tied at half. Figuring there are 55-60 games per week, that's 1 in ~350 games. If they really give 10000 to 1 for every game, I would put a bunch of cash in the account and bet every single game every week, expecting to lose thousands before I win big. I suspect that they won't give those odds for all games though.

 

[Grant Green]

It was a 10000-1 bet on USC and MN being tied at both the half and end of regulation. I see stuff like that and it's better than a lottery ticket. It actually has a chance of happening.

It occurred to me after leaving my desk that there is no way a book is giving 10000 to 1 odds. I looked back at your initial post and saw that is +10000, or 100 to 1. That's not even close to worth a bet.

 

[MtNittany]

Understood, but you have to quantify it and not just conclude that it is not "out of the question". Using a very small sample size of this past weekend, I count 5 games that were tied at half and 1 game that went to OT out of 49 total games. (Note, the 1 game that went to OT was not tied at half and the 5 that were tied at half did not go to OT).

1/49 = 2.04%
5/49 = 10.2%

Probability of both occurring = 0.0204 x 0.102 = 0.0021 (or 0.21%). That means you would expect to see this once in every ~480 games. There is probably some small correlation to both happening, so that the probability of OT is a little higher if the game is tied at half. So, maybe it's more like 1 in every 400 to 425 games. Yes, it seems likely that the odds are off and it is a good bet. However, are you willing to make this wager hundreds of times before you get a payoff? At $5 per bet, that could easily take $1000+ of bankroll to hit. If you are comfortable with that, go for it.

I don't see any I like this weekend. I don't know. I just sometimes see games and think 17's and 28's

It occurred to me after leaving my desk that there is no way a book is giving 10000 to 1 odds. I looked back at your initial post and saw that is +10000, or 100 to 1. That's not even close to worth a bet.

I never said it was 10K to one. Obviously 100 to one. I bet another game in the same fashion earlier in the season at 200-1 for $10 and it was tied until a FG right before half. We're talking about $30 worth of bets in half a season. And the USC/MN game hit if not for a review. I just think the odds are really high sometimes and the bets aren't offered hardly at all on Hard Rock this week.

 

[Grant Green]

I don't see any I like this weekend. I don't know. I just sometimes see games and think 17's and 28's

I never said it was 10K to one. Obviously 100 to one. I bet another game in the same fashion earlier in the season at 200-1 for $10 and it was tied until a FG right before half. We're talking about $30 worth of bets in half a season. And the USC/MN game hit if not for a review. I just think the odds are really high sometimes and the bets aren't offered hardly at all on Hard Rock this week.

It was a 10000-1 bet on USC and MN

see quote above.
if you had bet $1 on, let conservatively say 300 games this season, you would have won $100 once and lost $299. Yes, relatively small sample size but not a good start. Track it the rest of the season, but I'm pretty confident it won't get close to 1 in 100. You can be selective to try and skew the odds but even the best can't make up the difference between the probability of occurrence and the payout.

 

[MtNittany]

see quote above.
if you had bet $1 on, let conservatively say 300 games this season, you would have won $100 once and lost $299. Yes, relatively small sample size but not a good start. Track it the rest of the season, but I'm pretty confident it won't get close to 1 in 100. You can be selective to try and skew the odds but even the best can't make up the difference between the probability of occurrence and the payout.

Like I said, they are throw away bets. Not a system. I see really high odds and wonder if that could work. The really high odds on SC/MN seemed off to me.

 

[Grant Green]

Like I said, they are throw away bets. Not a system. I see really high odds and wonder if that could work. The really high odds on SC/MN seemed off to me.

Fair enough, but you did ask what I thought about it.

 

[MtNittany]

Fair enough, but you did ask what I thought about it.

Yup. Thanks man. You've been helpful following your posts. Still can't believe I have PSU at -3. Wish it was for more than $75. The REAL #1 team in the country gets the week off. Rest well Hoosiers. Rest well.

 

[Grant Green]

Yup. Thanks man. You've been helpful following your posts. Still can't believe I have PSU at -3. Wish it was for more than $75. The REAL #1 team in the country gets the week off. Rest well Hoosiers. Rest well.

Hope you crush that bet.

PS. Indiana plays Ohio State the week before OSU vs UM.

 

[Grant Green]

I just saw that Memphis is AT USF on Friday night. I don't think there's a chance in hell of them playing that game on that night.

 

[Grant Green]

FWIW, I have Denver as a 1 pt fav over Chargers, even with their bye. I have GB (-5) as a 7pt fav over Arizona.

 

[MtNittany]

Hope you crush that bet.

PS. Indiana plays Ohio State the week before OSU vs UM.

No. Indiana is going to slaughter Tosu the week before Tosu/SCum.

 

[Grant Green]

No. Indiana is going to slaughter Tosu the week before Tosu/SCum.

Ha. I'll settle for cover, but would love to see it. A moneyline sprinkle is probably in order.

 

[Grant Green]

Look ahead spots this week. These shouldn't be auto bets, but are intended to factor into your handicap.

Syracuse (-4) at NC State
Syracuse is off a fairly big win vs UNLV and plays ranked Pitt next week. I actually like NC State here, even without McCall and this is starting to get bet down to 3.5

Louisville (-7.5) at UVA
Louisville plays Miami next week

Florida (+15.5) at Tennessee
South Carolina (+21.5) at Bama
UT plays Bama next week. While Florida is typically a big game, some look ahead is probably in play for Bama

Miss St (-33.5) at UGA
Texas (-14) vs OU
UGA plays Texas next week. Same deal as UF vs UT, Texas vs OU is a big game, but this year I think UGA is bigger.

GA tech (-4.5) at UNC
GA Tech plays ND next week

Purdue (+19.5) at Illinois
Illinois plays Michigan next week (Purdue is on the no-bet list for me)

 

[Erial_Lion]

Interesting interview with Ken Pomeroy that gets into a lot of the challenges faced making preseason numbers in College Basketball (I'm sure that those making NCAAF numbers face the same challenges)...

 

[Grant Green]

Interesting interview with Ken Pomeroy that gets into a lot of the challenges faced making preseason numbers in College Basketball (I'm sure that those making NCAAF numbers face the same challenges)...

Probably a lot of pressure for him. Don't a lot of the books just use his preseason numbers to set lines?

 

[Erial_Lion]

Probably a lot of pressure for him. Don't a lot of the books just use his preseason numbers to set lines?

Pretty close...there was even a year about a decade ago where BOL opened up a couple of nights before opening night with every single game at Ken's projected line/total. The thing is, Ken doesn't do any type of tweaks for injuries or players being ruled ineligible late. So there were several games that moved VERY strongly away from the opener. It was only like $200 limits, so nothing too crazy to take advantage of...but still some great opportunities out there (though I think I ended up averaging like 5+ points of CLV across 15 plays and went under .500 on them).

 

[Erial_Lion]

Our game this week comes up at about 9:38...

 

[Grant Green]

Pretty close...there was even a year about a decade ago where BOL opened up a couple of nights before opening night with every single game at Ken's projected line/total. The thing is, Ken doesn't do any type of tweaks for injuries or players being ruled ineligible late. So there were several games that moved VERY strongly away from the opener. It was only like $200 limits, so nothing too crazy to take advantage of...but still some great opportunities out there (though I think I ended up averaging like 5+ points of CLV across 15 plays and went under .500 on them).

Ah, the days when BOL put the opening CFB lines out. Always a few that were pretty far off.
Why do a feel like CLV is a curse sometimes (I know it's not)?

 

[MtNittany]

PSU line down to -4 on Hard Rock. That justifies me betting more (in my mind anyway).

 

[Grant Green]

PSU line down to -4 on Hard Rock. That justifies me betting more (in my mind anyway).

Wait on it. I'm seeing -3.5 at numerous places so Hard Rock will probably follow suit.

Also, Arizona just got bet down from +4.5 to 3 at BYU. If the Hard Rock is slow to adjust, may be worth a few bucks.

MTSU feels like a live dog tonight.