BWI Sport Betting Thread

[Erial_Lion]

I'll give a college hoops play for tomorrow night (Tuesday, 11/12) that just hit the board at BOL...

Rider/Navy over 138

Definitely playable higher than that, but figured I'd post so you can grab it when it hits your site (and/or limits increase, if that matters to you).

 

[CDLionFL]

A hoops play of my own - North Florida +14 at Georgia. The Ospreys have already gone on the road and won outright vs So Car and GA Tech. I grabbed them at 10 1/2 last nite when it opened and was shocked to see it at 14 this morning when I was scrolling for other games. A sprinkle of the ML at +600 may not be out of the question either.

 

[Moogy]

I'll give a college hoops play for tomorrow night (Tuesday, 11/12) that just hit the board at BOL...

Rider/Navy over 138

Definitely playable higher than that, but figured I'd post so you can grab it when it hits your site (and/or limits increase, if that matters to you).

Now why was this your play? First half total is 82 points, so it looks to be a lock ... but what was the reasoning behind it? Rider's highest point total was 68 so far this year (and in 2 of those games, their opponent hardly scored), and Navy had one low-scoring affair, and one higher scoring ...

 

[Grant Green]

Now why was this your play? First half total is 82 points, so it looks to be a lock ... but what was the reasoning behind it? Rider's highest point total was 68 so far this year (and in 2 of those games, their opponent hardly scored), and Navy had one low-scoring affair, and one higher scoring ...

I'm gonna make a guess that it's a numerical play and involves both teams priors and pace of play (amongst other things that I'm sure I'm not considering). Erial is the CBB guy, so I'm looking forward to his answer if he provides one. I tailed him so I hope it continues at this pace.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Now why was this your play? First half total is 82 points, so it looks to be a lock ... but what was the reasoning behind it? Rider's highest point total was 68 so far this year (and in 2 of those games, their opponent hardly scored), and Navy had one low-scoring affair, and one higher scoring ...

It was mostly a play due to Navy (though some other things aligned too that made it a really strong one for me). The key factor is that the market hasn't caught up to a huge stylistic change that Navy made this season...DeChellis has been playing at a snails pace for a generation, but this season they are pressing full court and looking to push the tempo (lots of easy baskets for both teams in transition). He's talked about it in his press conferences, and shown it in the first 2 (and now 3) games. KenPom had their adjusted pace at 260th in the country coming into tonight, and I'm thinking that they'll end up being a top 100 team (hoping they keep it up, as Rider bludgeoned their press tonight when it didn't work, although they did create 16 turnovers, after 19 and 17 in their first two games).

So, it was a combination of both a numerical play (as @Grant Green alluded to), but also one that came out of research and watching press conferences online. If the market doesn't catch up, I'll likely go back to the well again...and this market is a unique one, as the lower limits on the "Extra" board keep some of the bigger players away as it's not worth their time (I was able to get down almost $3k spread across several spots, and that's more than enough to keep me coming back and investing the time in the tiny schools).

 

[CDLionFL]

I'll give a college hoops play for tomorrow night (Tuesday, 11/12) that just hit the board at BOL...

Rider/Navy over 138

Definitely playable higher than that, but figured I'd post so you can grab it when it hits your site (and/or limits increase, if that matters to you).

A hoops play of my own - North Florida +14 at Georgia. The Ospreys have already gone on the road and won outright vs So Car and GA Tech. I grabbed them at 10 1/2 last nite when it opened and was shocked to see it at 14 this morning when I was scrolling for other games. A sprinkle of the ML at +600 may not be out of the question either.

A pair of winners here though mine was a much bigger sweat than Erial's.

 

[Moogy]

It was mostly a play due to Navy (though some other things aligned too that made it a really strong one for me). The key factor is that the market hasn't caught up to a huge stylistic change that Navy made this season...DeChellis has been playing at a snails pace for a generation, but this season they are pressing full court and looking to push the tempo (lots of easy baskets for both teams in transition). He's talked about it in his press conferences, and shown it in the first 2 (and now 3) games. KenPom had their adjusted pace at 260th in the country coming into tonight, and I'm thinking that they'll end up being a top 100 team (hoping they keep it up, as Rider bludgeoned their press tonight when it didn't work, although they did create 16 turnovers, after 19 and 17 in their first two games).

So, it was a combination of both a numerical play (as @Grant Green alluded to), but also one that came out of research and watching press conferences online. If the market doesn't catch up, I'll likely go back to the well again...and this market is a unique one, as the lower limits on the "Extra" board keep some of the bigger players away as it's not worth their time (I was able to get down almost $3k spread across several spots, and that's more than enough to keep me coming back and investing the time in the tiny schools).

Awesome reply. Thanks. Yeah, I would have never known that level of detail. From my very cursory look at prior game scores, I saw nothing to support that play, but figured you had a lot more to go on than my uneducated glance (hell, I even forgot Dechellis was Navy's coach). Navy's first game was low-scoring, but it looks like that was just because Navy couldn't hit the broad side of a barn that game (35.8% FG%, 27.3% from 3).

 

[Grant Green]

It was mostly a play due to Navy (though some other things aligned too that made it a really strong one for me). The key factor is that the market hasn't caught up to a huge stylistic change that Navy made this season...DeChellis has been playing at a snails pace for a generation, but this season they are pressing full court and looking to push the tempo (lots of easy baskets for both teams in transition). He's talked about it in his press conferences, and shown it in the first 2 (and now 3) games. KenPom had their adjusted pace at 260th in the country coming into tonight, and I'm thinking that they'll end up being a top 100 team (hoping they keep it up, as Rider bludgeoned their press tonight when it didn't work, although they did create 16 turnovers, after 19 and 17 in their first two games).

So, it was a combination of both a numerical play (as @Grant Green alluded to), but also one that came out of research and watching press conferences online. If the market doesn't catch up, I'll likely go back to the well again...and this market is a unique one, as the lower limits on the "Extra" board keep some of the bigger players away as it's not worth their time (I was able to get down almost $3k spread across several spots, and that's more than enough to keep me coming back and investing the time in the tiny schools).

Nice cap and thanks again for the play.

 

[Grant Green]

A pair of winners here though mine was a much bigger sweat than Erial's.

I saw you scraped by. Still pays though! Well played.

 

[Erial_Lion]

A Futures Play...

Alabama to make the SEC Title game (+225 @ DK)

Three things really need to happen for this one to have a chance...Alabama needs to win at Oklahoma (likely a 2 TD favorite), Alabama needs to beat Auburn at home (likely approaching a 3 TD favorite), and Georgia needs to beat Tennessee (-10.5 on Saturday). Also have the back door of Tennessee losing at Vandy if we don't get the right result on Saturday.

Those occur, and Alabama is looking very favorable for the tiebreaker to get into the title game. +225 is much too good of a price at this point based on the scenarios.

What SEC championship round-robin tiebreakers mean for Alabama football after LSU win

The two SEC championship bids are by no means set in stone. Alabama football remains in the hunt.

www.tennessean.com

 

[Erial_Lion]

@Grant Green - thought you'd like this one...a guy I do some work with found a bad moneyline on a women's basketball game last night at one of the books...USC/Cal St Northridge...USC was a 53.5 point favorite, but they posted a moneyline of -8000 (something like -800000 would have been more accurate). $250 max bet (to win), so had a 20k "sweat" on it. 60-13 at halftime, and won it 124-39. Biggest risk now is bitcoin moving against me in the 10 minutes that my $ will be there as I get most of it back out.

 

[Grant Green]

A Futures Play...

Alabama to make the SEC Title game (+225 @ DK)

Three things really need to happen for this one to have a chance...Alabama needs to win at Oklahoma (likely a 2 TD favorite), Alabama needs to beat Auburn at home (likely approaching a 3 TD favorite), and Georgia needs to beat Tennessee (-10.5 on Saturday). Also have the back door of Tennessee losing at Vandy if we don't get the right result on Saturday.

Those occur, and Alabama is looking very favorable for the tiebreaker to get into the title game. +225 is much too good of a price at this point based on the scenarios.

What SEC championship round-robin tiebreakers mean for Alabama football after LSU win

The two SEC championship bids are by no means set in stone. Alabama football remains in the hunt.

www.tennessean.com

I didn't check your 3 scenarios to confirm that gets Bama in, but assuming it is correct, I think a moneyline parlay of those three events (~ -600, -350, and -1700) would pay something like -150 or so. Sound right? So, if you 3 scenarios get Bama in, that would be fantastic EV.

@Grant Green - thought you'd like this one...a guy I do some work with found a bad moneyline on a women's basketball game last night at one of the books...USC/Cal St Northridge...USC was a 53.5 point favorite, but they posted a moneyline of -8000 (something like -800000 would have been more accurate). $250 max bet (to win), so had a 20k "sweat" on it. 60-13 at halftime, and won it 124-39. Biggest risk now is bitcoin moving against me in the 10 minutes that my $ will be there as I get most of it back out.

Great value, but do you ever pucker up right before you hit the bet button laying those odds and that amount?
The way bitcoin is going, you're more likely to pick up a few dollars in that 10 minutes.

 

[Erial_Lion]

I didn't check your 3 scenarios to confirm that gets Bama in, but assuming it is correct, I think a moneyline parlay of those three events (~ -600, -350, and -1700) would pay something like -150 or so. Sound right? So, if you 3 scenarios get Bama in, that would be fantastic EV.


Great value, but do you ever pucker up right before you hit the bet button laying those odds and that amount?
The way bitcoin is going, you're more likely to pick up a few dollars in that 10 minutes.

Yea, the tiebreakers greatly favor Alabama...things would have to fall in some very narrow scenarios for them to miss it if the other 3 things happened...something like +100 to +125 if probable the fair price.

Definitely...I'm extra careful to make sure I've calculated everything correctly as a small error could be devastating. Last night wasn't as bad because it was pretty much impossible to lose. I remember once playing a soccer game (it was England-San Marino) at something like -.5 -6000 for a huge chunk in a game that was mispriced, and the first 15 minutes were stressful until England finally scored (we know how high variance soccer can be). Also remember playing a Derby Horse at fixed odds of something like -4000 to not hit the board...it was a sprinter that had no prayer of making it the mile and a quarter, but he was leading half way through and definitely made me sweat for a bit until he faded to about 19th.

 

[Grant Green]

Yuck. I just won an Akron bet that I did not deserve. But JoMo, what are you doing throwing the ball 52 times in a rain storm? You're killing me!