BWI Sport Betting Thread

[Erial_Lion]

I'll give a college hoops play for tomorrow night (Tuesday, 11/12) that just hit the board at BOL...

Rider/Navy over 138

Definitely playable higher than that, but figured I'd post so you can grab it when it hits your site (and/or limits increase, if that matters to you).

 

[CDLionFL]

A hoops play of my own - North Florida +14 at Georgia. The Ospreys have already gone on the road and won outright vs So Car and GA Tech. I grabbed them at 10 1/2 last nite when it opened and was shocked to see it at 14 this morning when I was scrolling for other games. A sprinkle of the ML at +600 may not be out of the question either.

 

[Moogy]

I'll give a college hoops play for tomorrow night (Tuesday, 11/12) that just hit the board at BOL...

Rider/Navy over 138

Definitely playable higher than that, but figured I'd post so you can grab it when it hits your site (and/or limits increase, if that matters to you).

Now why was this your play? First half total is 82 points, so it looks to be a lock ... but what was the reasoning behind it? Rider's highest point total was 68 so far this year (and in 2 of those games, their opponent hardly scored), and Navy had one low-scoring affair, and one higher scoring ...

 

[Grant Green]

Now why was this your play? First half total is 82 points, so it looks to be a lock ... but what was the reasoning behind it? Rider's highest point total was 68 so far this year (and in 2 of those games, their opponent hardly scored), and Navy had one low-scoring affair, and one higher scoring ...

I'm gonna make a guess that it's a numerical play and involves both teams priors and pace of play (amongst other things that I'm sure I'm not considering). Erial is the CBB guy, so I'm looking forward to his answer if he provides one. I tailed him so I hope it continues at this pace.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Now why was this your play? First half total is 82 points, so it looks to be a lock ... but what was the reasoning behind it? Rider's highest point total was 68 so far this year (and in 2 of those games, their opponent hardly scored), and Navy had one low-scoring affair, and one higher scoring ...

It was mostly a play due to Navy (though some other things aligned too that made it a really strong one for me). The key factor is that the market hasn't caught up to a huge stylistic change that Navy made this season...DeChellis has been playing at a snails pace for a generation, but this season they are pressing full court and looking to push the tempo (lots of easy baskets for both teams in transition). He's talked about it in his press conferences, and shown it in the first 2 (and now 3) games. KenPom had their adjusted pace at 260th in the country coming into tonight, and I'm thinking that they'll end up being a top 100 team (hoping they keep it up, as Rider bludgeoned their press tonight when it didn't work, although they did create 16 turnovers, after 19 and 17 in their first two games).

So, it was a combination of both a numerical play (as @Grant Green alluded to), but also one that came out of research and watching press conferences online. If the market doesn't catch up, I'll likely go back to the well again...and this market is a unique one, as the lower limits on the "Extra" board keep some of the bigger players away as it's not worth their time (I was able to get down almost $3k spread across several spots, and that's more than enough to keep me coming back and investing the time in the tiny schools).

 

[CDLionFL]

I'll give a college hoops play for tomorrow night (Tuesday, 11/12) that just hit the board at BOL...

Rider/Navy over 138

Definitely playable higher than that, but figured I'd post so you can grab it when it hits your site (and/or limits increase, if that matters to you).

A hoops play of my own - North Florida +14 at Georgia. The Ospreys have already gone on the road and won outright vs So Car and GA Tech. I grabbed them at 10 1/2 last nite when it opened and was shocked to see it at 14 this morning when I was scrolling for other games. A sprinkle of the ML at +600 may not be out of the question either.

A pair of winners here though mine was a much bigger sweat than Erial's.

 

[Moogy]

It was mostly a play due to Navy (though some other things aligned too that made it a really strong one for me). The key factor is that the market hasn't caught up to a huge stylistic change that Navy made this season...DeChellis has been playing at a snails pace for a generation, but this season they are pressing full court and looking to push the tempo (lots of easy baskets for both teams in transition). He's talked about it in his press conferences, and shown it in the first 2 (and now 3) games. KenPom had their adjusted pace at 260th in the country coming into tonight, and I'm thinking that they'll end up being a top 100 team (hoping they keep it up, as Rider bludgeoned their press tonight when it didn't work, although they did create 16 turnovers, after 19 and 17 in their first two games).

So, it was a combination of both a numerical play (as @Grant Green alluded to), but also one that came out of research and watching press conferences online. If the market doesn't catch up, I'll likely go back to the well again...and this market is a unique one, as the lower limits on the "Extra" board keep some of the bigger players away as it's not worth their time (I was able to get down almost $3k spread across several spots, and that's more than enough to keep me coming back and investing the time in the tiny schools).

Awesome reply. Thanks. Yeah, I would have never known that level of detail. From my very cursory look at prior game scores, I saw nothing to support that play, but figured you had a lot more to go on than my uneducated glance (hell, I even forgot Dechellis was Navy's coach). Navy's first game was low-scoring, but it looks like that was just because Navy couldn't hit the broad side of a barn that game (35.8% FG%, 27.3% from 3).

 

[Grant Green]

It was mostly a play due to Navy (though some other things aligned too that made it a really strong one for me). The key factor is that the market hasn't caught up to a huge stylistic change that Navy made this season...DeChellis has been playing at a snails pace for a generation, but this season they are pressing full court and looking to push the tempo (lots of easy baskets for both teams in transition). He's talked about it in his press conferences, and shown it in the first 2 (and now 3) games. KenPom had their adjusted pace at 260th in the country coming into tonight, and I'm thinking that they'll end up being a top 100 team (hoping they keep it up, as Rider bludgeoned their press tonight when it didn't work, although they did create 16 turnovers, after 19 and 17 in their first two games).

So, it was a combination of both a numerical play (as @Grant Green alluded to), but also one that came out of research and watching press conferences online. If the market doesn't catch up, I'll likely go back to the well again...and this market is a unique one, as the lower limits on the "Extra" board keep some of the bigger players away as it's not worth their time (I was able to get down almost $3k spread across several spots, and that's more than enough to keep me coming back and investing the time in the tiny schools).

Nice cap and thanks again for the play.

 

[Grant Green]

A pair of winners here though mine was a much bigger sweat than Erial's.

I saw you scraped by. Still pays though! Well played.

 

[Erial_Lion]

A Futures Play...

Alabama to make the SEC Title game (+225 @ DK)

Three things really need to happen for this one to have a chance...Alabama needs to win at Oklahoma (likely a 2 TD favorite), Alabama needs to beat Auburn at home (likely approaching a 3 TD favorite), and Georgia needs to beat Tennessee (-10.5 on Saturday). Also have the back door of Tennessee losing at Vandy if we don't get the right result on Saturday.

Those occur, and Alabama is looking very favorable for the tiebreaker to get into the title game. +225 is much too good of a price at this point based on the scenarios.

What SEC championship round-robin tiebreakers mean for Alabama football after LSU win

The two SEC championship bids are by no means set in stone. Alabama football remains in the hunt.

www.tennessean.com

 

[Erial_Lion]

@Grant Green - thought you'd like this one...a guy I do some work with found a bad moneyline on a women's basketball game last night at one of the books...USC/Cal St Northridge...USC was a 53.5 point favorite, but they posted a moneyline of -8000 (something like -800000 would have been more accurate). $250 max bet (to win), so had a 20k "sweat" on it. 60-13 at halftime, and won it 124-39. Biggest risk now is bitcoin moving against me in the 10 minutes that my $ will be there as I get most of it back out.

 

[Grant Green]

A Futures Play...

Alabama to make the SEC Title game (+225 @ DK)

Three things really need to happen for this one to have a chance...Alabama needs to win at Oklahoma (likely a 2 TD favorite), Alabama needs to beat Auburn at home (likely approaching a 3 TD favorite), and Georgia needs to beat Tennessee (-10.5 on Saturday). Also have the back door of Tennessee losing at Vandy if we don't get the right result on Saturday.

Those occur, and Alabama is looking very favorable for the tiebreaker to get into the title game. +225 is much too good of a price at this point based on the scenarios.

What SEC championship round-robin tiebreakers mean for Alabama football after LSU win

The two SEC championship bids are by no means set in stone. Alabama football remains in the hunt.

www.tennessean.com

I didn't check your 3 scenarios to confirm that gets Bama in, but assuming it is correct, I think a moneyline parlay of those three events (~ -600, -350, and -1700) would pay something like -150 or so. Sound right? So, if you 3 scenarios get Bama in, that would be fantastic EV.

@Grant Green - thought you'd like this one...a guy I do some work with found a bad moneyline on a women's basketball game last night at one of the books...USC/Cal St Northridge...USC was a 53.5 point favorite, but they posted a moneyline of -8000 (something like -800000 would have been more accurate). $250 max bet (to win), so had a 20k "sweat" on it. 60-13 at halftime, and won it 124-39. Biggest risk now is bitcoin moving against me in the 10 minutes that my $ will be there as I get most of it back out.

Great value, but do you ever pucker up right before you hit the bet button laying those odds and that amount?
The way bitcoin is going, you're more likely to pick up a few dollars in that 10 minutes.

 

[Erial_Lion]

I didn't check your 3 scenarios to confirm that gets Bama in, but assuming it is correct, I think a moneyline parlay of those three events (~ -600, -350, and -1700) would pay something like -150 or so. Sound right? So, if you 3 scenarios get Bama in, that would be fantastic EV.


Great value, but do you ever pucker up right before you hit the bet button laying those odds and that amount?
The way bitcoin is going, you're more likely to pick up a few dollars in that 10 minutes.

Yea, the tiebreakers greatly favor Alabama...things would have to fall in some very narrow scenarios for them to miss it if the other 3 things happened...something like +100 to +125 if probable the fair price.

Definitely...I'm extra careful to make sure I've calculated everything correctly as a small error could be devastating. Last night wasn't as bad because it was pretty much impossible to lose. I remember once playing a soccer game (it was England-San Marino) at something like -.5 -6000 for a huge chunk in a game that was mispriced, and the first 15 minutes were stressful until England finally scored (we know how high variance soccer can be). Also remember playing a Derby Horse at fixed odds of something like -4000 to not hit the board...it was a sprinter that had no prayer of making it the mile and a quarter, but he was leading half way through and definitely made me sweat for a bit until he faded to about 19th.

 

[Grant Green]

Yuck. I just won an Akron bet that I did not deserve. But JoMo, what are you doing throwing the ball 52 times in a rain storm? You're killing me!

 

[Erial_Lion]

Here is one for tomorrow (Friday, 11/15) that I’ll share…

UNC Wilmington/USC Upstate over 154

 

[Erial_Lion]

I didn't check your 3 scenarios to confirm that gets Bama in, but assuming it is correct, I think a moneyline parlay of those three events (~ -600, -350, and -1700) would pay something like -150 or so. Sound right? So, if you 3 scenarios get Bama in, that would be fantastic EV.

Others have caught on...down to +160 today.

 

[Grant Green]

Others have caught on...down to +160 today.

I would have joined you but stupid oregon only allows pro sports betting. Strange position to take.

 

[MtNittany]

Looking over what I would have bet the past 2 weeks (and didn't), I'm thankful!

That said, I went through my entire history this season and am still up $950, so $250 goes back in (making the balance $250.01 of course) and we finish strong! I need some winners this weekend. Already like UTSA tonight a bit.

The cashout offers for this week 3 bet should get interesting. Especially if I let it go and they somehow beat Tosu.

 

[Grant Green]

Looking over what I would have bet the past 2 weeks (and didn't), I'm thankful!

That said, I went through my entire history this season and am still up $950, so $250 goes back in (making the balance $250.01 of course) and we finish strong! I need a lock Grant and others! If for nothing more than morale.

The cashout offers for this week 3 bet should get interesting. Especially if I let it go and they somehow beat Tosu.

View attachment 691766

First, don't cash it out! It's worth more than they are offering. If they make the playoff and you get cold feet, you would probably get more value by hedging on a moneyline bet on one of their opponents. Still, it's $5 and the payout isn't life changing money, so I would let it ride.

As you've learned, there are no locks. I'll tell you that one of the hot (I hesitate to use the word "sharp") bets of the week is Kansas. Yes, the money is against BYU again. It's down to +2.5 now, so it may be best to wait and see if it goes back to +3. Air Force has been playing much better. Oregon State has a bad run defense and I read somewhere that they just started prepping for the triple option. I think a lot of teams will do a little prep in camp. If you want to get dirty, I'm taking a look at UMass against a Liberty team that has WKY on deck and is out of playoff contention.

 

[MtNittany]

First, don't cash it out! It's worth more than they are offering. If they make the playoff and you get cold feet, you would probably get more value by hedging on a moneyline bet on one of their opponents. Still, it's $5 and the payout isn't life changing money, so I would let it ride.

As you've learned, there are no locks. I'll tell you that one of the hot (I hesitate to use the word "sharp") bets of the week is Kansas. Yes, the money is against BYU again. It's down to +2.5 now, so it may be best to wait and see if it goes back to +3. Air Force has been playing much better. Oregon State has a bad run defense and I read somewhere that they just started prepping for the triple option. I think a lot of teams will do a little prep in camp. If you want to get dirty, I'm taking a look at UMass against a Liberty team that has WKY on deck and is out of playoff contention.

Liberty has let me down twice this year (once in embarrassing fashion of course). I looked at Umass too. Kansas seems good, and I get the interest. But I'd rather bet on a random MAC team than against BYU at this point.

I would consider the cash out once IU is in the playoff (assuming). Right before the Tosu game would be the worst time I would guess.

Sort of like Wyoming (along w/ UTSA) tonight. They got their TB back and are coming off a bye week.

PSU was a gimme last week. Still holding at 28 this week. You see it budging? I see PSU's remaining games all ending up like or near last week. 35-6 ish.

 

[Grant Green]

Liberty has let me down twice this year (once in embarrassing fashion of course). I looked at Umass too. Kansas seems good, and I get the interest. But I'd rather bet on a random MAC team than against BYU at this point.

I would consider the cash out once IU is in the playoff (assuming). Right before the Tosu game would be the worst time I would guess.

Sort of like Wyoming (along w/ UTSA) tonight. They got their TB back and are coming off a bye week.

PSU was a gimme last week. Still holding at 28 this week. You see it budging? I see PSU's remaining games all ending up like or near last week. 35-6 ish.

Actually, Wyoming was another one I was going to mention. Also been playing much better. I'm considering them tonight, but I'd like to get +10. I did bet UTSA for a small amount.

I bet PSU at -28 on the open. They are up to -29 (even -30) at most books (I'd recommend looking at odds screens to get a good handle on the market - https://unabated.com/cfb/odds). This is actually a good time to take some big chalk that are potential playoff teams and may be interested in style points (hello James Franklin).

 

[MtNittany]

Actually, Wyoming was another one I was going to mention. Also been playing much better. I'm considering them tonight, but I'd like to get +10. I did bet UTSA for a small amount.

I bet PSU at -28 on the open. They are up to -29 (even -30) at most books (I'd recommend looking at odds screens to get a good handle on the market - https://unabated.com/cfb/odds). This is actually a good time to take some big chalk that are potential playoff teams and may be interested in style points (hello James Franklin).

I like PSU. Think I'll wait til tomorrow AM (once I win my bets tonight!). Also think Clemson is going to handle sPitt. BC line interests me. If it hits 20, I may bite on the Fightin' O'Briens. WKU and their mascot (that looks like a co-worker of mine) have won me a bunch this year. I'll be on them as well.

 

[Grant Green]

I like PSU. Think I'll wait til tomorrow AM (once I win my bets tonight!). Also think Clemson is going to handle sPitt. BC line interests me. If it hits 20, I may bite on the Fightin' O'Briens. WKU and their mascot (that looks like a co-worker of mine) have won me a bunch this year. I'll be on them as well.

If your book is showing -28 for PSU I would take it now (unless juice is >-115). I tend to agree with Clemson, but the line is getting a little high for me. Don't hate BC either. That one already touched +20 and looks like it could get there again by tomorrow.

 

[LionJim]

I like PSU. Think I'll wait til tomorrow AM (once I win my bets tonight!). Also think Clemson is going to handle sPitt. BC line interests me. If it hits 20, I may bite on the Fightin' O'Briens. WKU and their mascot (that looks like a co-worker of mine) have won me a bunch this year. I'll be on them as well.

And we were all wondering what your secret was. Pick the team whose mascot looks like a coworker, that’s an ATM.

 

[Grant Green]

I like PSU. Think I'll wait til tomorrow AM (once I win my bets tonight!). Also think Clemson is going to handle sPitt. BC line interests me. If it hits 20, I may bite on the Fightin' O'Briens. WKU and their mascot (that looks like a co-worker of mine) have won me a bunch this year. I'll be on them as well.

Taking it back about BC. I thought Castellanos got replaced due to a minor injury. No, he was benched in favor of Grayson James and has quit the team. I can't disagree with him, as he is a much better QB than James imo (regressed at FIU). This line has moved in SMUs favor for a reason. I would stay away from this.

 

[Nittering Nabob]

First, don't cash it out! It's worth more than they are offering. If they make the playoff and you get cold feet, you would probably get more value by hedging on a moneyline bet on one of their opponents. Still, it's $5 and the payout isn't life changing money, so I would let it ride.

As you've learned, there are no locks. I'll tell you that one of the hot (I hesitate to use the word "sharp") bets of the week is Kansas. Yes, the money is against BYU again. It's down to +2.5 now, so it may be best to wait and see if it goes back to +3. Air Force has been playing much better. Oregon State has a bad run defense and I read somewhere that they just started prepping for the triple option. I think a lot of teams will do a little prep in camp. If you want to get dirty, I'm taking a look at UMass against a Liberty team that has WKY on deck and is out of playoff contention.

It’s funny you mentioned Kansas > BYU.

I’m torn between believing Lance L and his ground game can prevail over a team the Big 12 officials have seemingly ordained as their best chance to get playoff $$$$

The B12 has to be embarrassed about their overt corruption last week, which is why I’m leaning Kansas.

But money talks.

I think Pitt is going to challenge Clemson, but will lose in the end…because Clemson is the ACC’s best hope for a playoff seeding.

 

[CDLionFL]

Big XII is going to get playoff $$$ whether it's BYU, Colorado, or Arizona (ok, not really on the last one)

@Erial_Lion another great call on your hoops over tonight.

 

[Grant Green]

Big XII is going to get playoff $$$ whether it's BYU, Colorado, or Arizona (ok, not really on the last one)

@Erial_Lion another great call on your hoops over tonight.

Ditto @Erial_Lion. Win or lose, appreciate the+EV play.

 

[MtNittany]

Won w/ NC Central, UTSA. Lost w/ Wyoming...then pounded AZ live (after watching a few plays). If they get it done I'll double my money tonight which is all I can ask for.