Down goes BYU
- Thread starter Perd Hapley
- Start date
I’m not so sure about that.
Colorado is sitting down there at #17 and the Deion hype train is in full effect. If both Colorado and BYU win out until they meet in the Big 12 Championship game and Colorado comes away with the Championship, I could see a scenario where both Colorado and BYU get in, even with the BYU loss today. If Colorado loses the Big 12 Championship, but some other bubble teams also lose, there could be some pressure to put them in just based on how much attention would be brought to their inclusion.
In the ACC, I could see a scenario where SMU and Miami both get in if SMU (currently #14) wins the ACC Championship over Miami (or even vice versa) with sort of the same scenario. Both teams could win out until the ACC Championship. By then, we’re probably seeing Miami back up around 6-7 and SMU up at 9-12.
A 2-loss BYU has absolutely no chance. You’re forgetting that they needed miracle last second drives to beat a bad Utah team and a really, really bad Oklahoma State team. They just lost at home to 3-6 Kansas. Strength of schedule outside the Top 50. Hell they were only at #6 even while undefeated. The loss they just took is comparable to when Ole Miss lost to Kentucky, except it just happened in mid-November. Their win over Kansas State is also nowhere near as good now, as they are about to dip out of the Top 25.
And a 3-loss Colorado in there? Jesus. They’d have to burn the whole thing down and start over if that nonsense occurred. Just change the acronym from CFP to WWE at that point.
Don’t see this one either. Too much competition from the SEC and B1G. Assuming SMU wins their last 2, what is their path to passing Ole Miss? Tennessee? Georgia? Bama? Indiana? Ohio State? Notre Dame? Penn State? Maybe even Texas A&M gets in there? Boise State?
Miami will be in the 7-12 range, with SMU outside the Top 12. Every 2-loss or less team from the SEC, B1G, and ND will be assured of being ahead of them. Loser of that ACC title game ain’t making it. I’d say the same about the SEC Championship loser if its Bama vs. A&M. If you’re in the back half and you lose your last game, its hard to see a path.
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Im sure this has been discussed, but are the byes for the highest ranked conference champions regardless of conference? For example, if Boise makes it over either ACC champ or Big 12 champ, would Boise get the bye and one of the other champs could *potentially* be left out?
The way the playoff rule is written it is possible for the G5 team to get the bye because it’s the 4 highest ranked conference champions. The other that’s left out of the byes would still be in the playoff and play in the first round.
The whole conference champions getting a bye is stupid. The rule should be that the conference champs simply get a spot in the playoff and the 4 highest ranked teams should get the byes.
Yep. Massivehelp to 10-2 SEC teams.
Boise State could get the bye over the Big 12 champ this year. It would take two G5 champs making the CFP over the Big 12 or ACC champ for one of them to be completely left out. The latter is unlikely.
There is no distinction between G5 and P4 in the format. It is a straight 5-7 format. The assumption is most years the P4 champs will get the byes based on rankings.
Boise State could get the bye over the Big 12 champ this year. It would take two G5 champs making the CFP over the Big 12 or ACC champ for one of them to be completely left out. The latter is unlikely.
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SMU is sitting at 14th, and Miami is till top 10, and they don't play Miami. I would not give 0% chance of the ACC getting two in. BYU really changes nothing. They will still get the 4th seed with a bye if they win out. Only ting change is GA has played and beaten two top 10 team. The SEC will only get four bids. Sorry to say it but they only play 8 conference games. The other P4's play 9. It is going to be healed against them.
0% chance ACC or Big 12 get 2 bids. Loser of SMU-Miami will drop like a rock, and Clemson can’t make the title game without 1 of those 2 losing which would eliminate the chance of a 1-loss ACC team not making the title game. SEC is a lock for 4 playoff teams & may get a 5th if Notre Dame loses.
This was the plan all along. I'm convinced. Texas will lose as well. The SEC exists to propel as many teams forward as possible to the sport's playoffs. More revenue, better brand. No other purpose.
The Big 12 is getting at least one in no matter what. The SEC needs ND to lose to get an additional bid. It would be funny if Bosie State ends up ranked higher than either the Big 12 or ACC champion and get the bye but ranked behind some SEC or Big 10 schools.
There are only 2 wrinkles left:
- Will the committee punish teams for losing conference championship games? An example would be Texas A&M beats Texas to get to 10-2 and a berth in the SEC Championship Game with Alabama(?), and Texas A&M and Alabama are both in the top 12 before the game. Is it really fair to drop the loser (who would now be a 3-loss team) out of the bracket to benefit a team that didn't qualify for their conference championship game? No, I don't think so.
- This same situation probably doesn't apply to the Big 12 Championship Game, where I doubt both 11-1 BYU and 10-2 Colorado are considered "in" before the game, so if BYU loses, they just get replaced by Colorado in the final bracket.
- How important are head-to-head victories? Historically, they've meant a lot. The committee will bend over backwards to rank several teams in a row with the same records by head-to-head status. But sometimes they don't. The committee just does whatever it wants and makes up a justification after the fact, so I wouldn't be surprised if Ole Miss stays in front of Georgia, or if they don't.
- You also have situations like Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee, who all went 1-1 against each other.
No 2-loss team outside of SEC, Big 10 or Notre Dame is getting an at large bid. Not going to happen. I think only way SEC doesn’t get 4 teens in is if Army & Boise both win out & win their conference. Then you might see AAC, MWC or Big 12 champion get an at large bid.
They are likely to play Miami in the ACC title game, unless one of them loses multiple games…..not likely.
Of course they will, but they can no longer get an at large with 2 losses. They won’t finish near high enough. That was the big change with their loss yesterday….they had at least somewhat of an argument at 12-1 with a loss in the title game. They no longer have that path.
Probably correct if chalk holds. But its not impossible for 5. A Notre Dame loss to currently undefeated and 16th ranked Army is all it would take to open up a 5th slot for the SEC. IU getting badly beaten by Ohio State is another possible path to 5 from the SEC.
The SEC and ACC play 8. B1G and Big 12 play 9.
You can remove the "maybe," unless they **** the bed vs USCw AND Urmy, both teams they should easily beat, ND will be comfortably in the playoff.
You can’t ignore any data point, and the committee never has. It’s even more important to not do so this year, because the tiebreakers aren’t clean and the conference championship representatives aren’t going to really have a concrete mandate to be there in many cases. If Texas A&M and Bama play in Atlanta, both knowing they are playing for an auto bid and a bye, and Bama wins 45-0, you’re not going to hold that against A&M?
And none of this is new. Bama lost the Iron Bowl in 2017, Auburn won the west and played UGA, but lost in Atlanta. They not only put Bama in the CFP over Auburn, they also put them in over an Ohio State team that won the B1G.
In the current rankings and SEC scenarios, not that important. Too many conflicts and too many teams nested together that don’t all play each other. Ole Miss beat UGA, who beat Tennessee, who beat Alabama, who beat LSU, who beat Ole Miss. Tennessee and Bama have the same predicament as Ole Miss and UGA.
BYU isn’t getting an at-large with 2 losses. They aren’t going to have the SOS to justify it.
Again, its obvious to see that the undefeated and 1-loss teams are largely where they are due to very weak SOS. 47 of the Top 50 SOS’s are 2+ loss teams. The average SOS of the ten undefeated and 1-loss P4 teams (plus ND) is 60.1. The best SOS of any undefeated team is Oregon at #43. The best SOS of any 1-loss team is Ohio State at #28. The worst SOS of any 2-loss SEC team is Ole Miss, at #29. SOS matters and quality wins / bad losses matter. This has been proven time and time again by the CFP committee…in 2014 with Ohio State over TCU / Baylor, in 2017, and in 2023. Can’t just look at overall record like it’s 1995.
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