Recession incoming

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Curby

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It took Reagan two years to clean up Carter's mess, and it'll take Trump that long to clean up Joe's, unless he goes on another spending spree too.
Not convinced Trump will be the one.

If they don't kill him, it will be another joke of an election. I mean, a dementia patient somehow got 81 mil votes...the most in history.
They will do whatever they can to install Kamala. Just watch.
 

horshack.sixpack

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Oct 30, 2012
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That’s all fine and good but when it goes through the roof for two years, a 2 or 3 percent inflation rate year over year doesn’t really tell the story. I’m glad it’s still not 7 percent but that 7 percent from two years ago is still kicking everyone’s a$$.
Correct. And short of a more severe monetary contraction that induced deflation, we won't be going backwards. That's my primary point, it's bad right now because prices shot up a lot in a short time; much faster than wage growth, and the inflation that caused it has abated back to normal levels. The bar graph from another OP tells the story. The argument that inflation is still the problem isn't valid. Prices are not going to come down from when inflation was bad.
 
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Boom Boom

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Correct. And short of a more severe monetary contraction that induced deflation, we won't be going backwards. That's my primary point, it's bad right now because prices shot up a lot in a short time; much faster than wage growth, and the inflation that caused it has abated back to normal levels. The bar graph from another OP tells the story. The argument that inflation is still the problem isn't valid. Prices are not going to come down from when inflation was bad.
Prices shot up, but so did wages. Anyone who changed jobs in the last few years....probably cancelled out the difference. Only those who couldn't got screwed, and that's not an insignificant number! But the problem there isn't inflation.
 
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Anon1704414204

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Perd Hapley

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I'm not looking for nickel Coke again. I just think it's ridiculous to have to pay the prices we have to pay today at the grocery store. Trying to tell me that we should naturally expect to pay that amount logically is really something else. I'm out. I can't argue with logic like that.
You should naturally expect to pay what things cost. You don’t have to buy those things.

The ultimate issue - when new consumer price discovery happens due to some acute event, and corporations then learn that people can and will pay the higher price, what incentive is there for anything to ever go back to the way it was?
 

pseudonym

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Unexpected increases in the rate of inflation benefit debtors with fixed interest rate debt and hurts holders of fixed debt. It doesn’t help or hurt owners of assets (or really any other particular class of people) generally. just depends on people’s situations and it usually takes a while to figure out who are winners and who are losers.
Rich people hold the bulk of their wealth in assets such as real estate, stocks, bitcoin, etc. Poor people hold the bulk of their wealth in the local currency. When the money supply is expanded, poor people are disproportionally harmed through dilution. Not only that, but money printing also increases demand for hard assets, so holders of those assets aren't just protected from the effects of inflation, but they can benefit.

This can be illustrated by examining the correlation between an expanding money supply and an expanding wealth gap.
 
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mcdawg22

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Are you playing the "Corporate Greed" Card?
I don’t think it should be called corporate greed but it’s pretty well known that many large corporations have been making a killing in this economy. Again, I don’t blame them. A businesses objective is to make as much money as legally possible. If I can make a comfortable living selling tulips for $5 but demand says I can sell it for $10 I’m gonna sell it for $10.
Kind of off subject but all these big corporations getting stripped by PE firms then declaring bankruptcy made me think. Could there be a return of Mom and Pop? Every city with at least 30k got an Applebees TGIF Ruby Tuesday that siphoned a lot of business away from local restaurants. Hopefully will all of the big boys getting stripped, it promotes a comeback with them. Or we’ll all just have 40 food trucks and 10 Breweries.
 

DesotoCountyDawg

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I don’t think it should be called corporate greed but it’s pretty well known that many large corporations have been making a killing in this economy. Again, I don’t blame them. A businesses objective is to make as much money as legally possible. If I can make a comfortable living selling tulips for $5 but demand says I can sell it for $10 I’m gonna sell it for $10.
Kind of off subject but all these big corporations getting stripped by PE firms then declaring bankruptcy made me think. Could there be a return of Mom and Pop? Every city with at least 30k got an Applebees TGIF Ruby Tuesday that siphoned a lot of business away from local restaurants. Hopefully will all of the big boys getting stripped, it promotes a comeback with them. Or we’ll all just have 40 food trucks and 10 Breweries.
Grocery stores are making bank. So much so that the government has launched a probe into grocery pricing.
 

Perd Hapley

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Rich people hold the bulk of their wealth in assets such as real estate, stocks, bitcoin, etc. Poor people hold the bulk of their wealth in the local currency. When the money supply is expanded, poor people are disproportionally harmed through dilution. Not only that, but money printing also increases demand for hard assets, so holders of those assets aren't just protected from the effects of inflation, but they can benefit.

This can be illustrated by examining the correlation between an expanding money supply and an expanding wealth gap.
This is a bizarre way of looking at things. First off, everyone (rich, poor, educated, uneducated, etc.) hold what they need for short term, immediate expenses in local currency. Poor people hold a larger percentage of their assets there, because its all they 17ing have. People save or invest what they don’t need for basic, day-to-day living. Poor people have none of that.

I don’t think it’s some crazy revelation that anything negative in the economy (like high inflation) disproportionately affects poor people more than others.
 

pseudonym

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This is a bizarre way of looking at things. First off, everyone (rich, poor, educated, uneducated, etc.) hold what they need for short term, immediate expenses in local currency. Poor people hold a larger percentage of their assets there, because its all they 17ing have. People save or invest what they don’t need for basic, day-to-day living. Poor people have none of that.

I don’t think it’s some crazy revelation that anything negative in the economy (like high inflation) disproportionately affects poor people more than others.
This article (2 minute read) and video can explain it better than me:




1722638032641.png
 
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Anon1704414204

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Grocery stores are making bank. So much so that the government has launched a probe into grocery pricing.
Why even launch an investigation when Biden's Appointee FTC Chair has already determined that it's all on the grocery stores and government had / has nothing to do with it? Why not just convict & fine them now and tell them "DON'T!!!"
 

TaleofTwoDogs

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Jun 1, 2004
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A define pension plan pay out a higher lump sum with lowers the interest rates. High rates have a reverse effect on company offer pension plan. I would have to be talking in person to explain.
Never heard of this interest adjusted method for distribution. A Cash Balance defined plan uses an interest credit to calculate your annual benefit as well as a pay credit. This is your account balance and is available for a lump sum distribution when you retire. The employer is on the hook to make sure funds used for the distribution are not underfunded. So the higher the interest rates the higher your interest credit to your account balance. A regular defined benefit plan is periodic payments (usually monthly) over your actuary deemed life span. Even if they have a distribution option on retirement, the higher the interest rate on a parameter such as a 30 year Treasury bond, the higher your pay out.
 

coach66

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Fed kept rates too high too long.

Predictions on where stocks and bonds go over the next couple weeks? I'm guessing 36k DOW and 3.5 10 yr rate.
I don’t think I’ve ever been as concerned about this country as I am right now. There is no one to stand against the mainstream media and big tech who have decided they are going to run the country. It’s way past time for young conservatives, moderates and suburban women to make a stand or the Rebublic will not stand as we crash into the vortex of a pure democracy where everyone gets a trophy and everyone gets ****$d.
 
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mstateglfr

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Feb 24, 2008
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I think it's funny when I hear someone like Whoopi Goldberg tell a man that says a family of four can't go to McDonald's and that it is McDonald's fault. McDonald's fault?
Is Whoopi, or someone like her, claiming this?
I don't remember the last time I heard Whoopi even speak, so if she is saying that, it's news to me.

Anyways, below are annual profit increases for McD's.
2021 - 29%
2022 - 5%
2023 - 10%

So...while food and labor costs have increased, so have their profits.
They could choose to lower prices, pay the same food and labor costs, and still show profit growth.

^ it's unrealistic, but they could do it.
Instead, they will say that they have heard consumers complaining and offer lower cost food that is smaller and/or cheaper to produce.
 

mstateglfr

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I don’t think I’ve ever been as concerned about this country as I am right now. There is no one to stand against the mainstream media and big tech who have decided they are going to run the country. It’s way past time for young conservatives, moderates and suburban women to make a stand or the Rebublic will not stand as we crash into the vortex of a pure democracy where everyone gets a trophy and everyone gets ****$d.
Do you think 'mainstream media' and 'big tech' are in agreement and somehow managing to work together?
 

Anon1704414204

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Corporate greed is my favorite explanation for periods of high inflation because it implies that there are periods in which corporations are not greedy.
Corporate greed is my favorite explanation for periods of high inflation because it implies that there are periods in which corporations are not greedy.
Yep. They pick & choose when to be greedy in order to damage a political party. Same as Big Oil.
 

Boom Boom

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You should naturally expect to pay what things cost. You don’t have to buy those things.

The ultimate issue - when new consumer price discovery happens due to some acute event, and corporations then learn that people can and will pay the higher price, what incentive is there for anything to ever go back to the way it was?
Competition. Loss of market share. It's actually happened in the fast food realm. Not as much elsewhere, as there's little competition these days.
 
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ckDOG

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Dec 11, 2007
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Let's increase tariffs and deport a bunch of the labor force. That'll help inflation***

Silver linings - I guess I'll roll over a couple of my old 401k accounts to my IRA while the market tanks. Maybe time to do the back door conversion (giggity) if it really tanks as well.
 

mcdawg22

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Sep 18, 2004
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I don’t think I’ve ever been as concerned about this country as I am right now. There is no one to stand against the mainstream media and big tech who have decided they are going to run the country. It’s way past time for young conservatives, moderates and suburban women to make a stand or the Rebublic will not stand as we crash into the vortex of a pure democracy where everyone gets a trophy and everyone gets ****$d.
If they had message boards I bet I could find posts like this in every decade since 1800. Granted 1862 and 1928 probably had good reason.
 

mstateglfr

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Feb 24, 2008
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Trump pushed for the first stimulus, which gave money to everyone regardless of it they even needed it.
++ that expanded the monetary supply and devalued the dollar ++

116th Congress set and changed PPP policy
++ that forgave countless millions and accelerated inflation while also further dividing haves and havenots ++


^ Both of these were before Biden took office.

It was discussed even in 2018 and 2019 that the low interest rate run we were on wasn't sustainable and was lasting too long.
It was extensively discussed that whoever took office in January '21, be it Trump or Biden, was in for a tough 4 years because of the suppressed rates.

Biden's team hasnt done themselves many favors with regard to inflation, but as usual- claiming it's all the current Admin's fault is absurd.
There is a delay for economic impact.
 

Boom Boom

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Rich people hold the bulk of their wealth in assets such as real estate, stocks, bitcoin, etc. Poor people hold the bulk of their wealth in the local currency. When the money supply is expanded, poor people are disproportionally harmed through dilution. Not only that, but money printing also increases demand for hard assets, so holders of those assets aren't just protected from the effects of inflation, but they can benefit.

This can be illustrated by examining the correlation between an expanding money supply and an expanding wealth gap.
No. Poor people hold the bulk of their worth in the value of their future labor. Rich people hold the bulk of their worth in the value of their assets.

This is where you inflationistas have missed a crucial piece. The dollar is just a substitute for labor. It doesn't matter if a dollar can buy 2 apples today but only 1 next year. What matters is what an hour of labor can buy. When someone has very little wealth but will be working for decades....what matters is what that future work can buy.
 

DesotoCountyDawg

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Nov 16, 2005
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Why even launch an investigation when Biden's Appointee FTC Chair has already determined that it's all on the grocery stores and government had / has nothing to do with it? Why not just convict & fine them now and tell them "DON'T!!!"
Because there’s some validity to it.
 

BoDawg.sixpack

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Feb 5, 2010
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We're probably due for a corporate tax increase and a higher tax bracket for people making 7 figures and higher. I think the application of the microprocessor, advanced robotics and big data analytics has a has a lot to do with this chart. In the time frame below, the percentage of households in the middle class in the US shrank from about 60 percent to about 50 percent.

SmartSelect_20240802_175905_Brave.jpg
 

Seinfeld

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Nov 30, 2006
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Corporate greed is my favorite explanation for periods of high inflation because it implies that there are periods in which corporations are not greedy.
And while I 100% agree, I always find some irony in all the corporate greed talk. The usual suspects like to act like the greed is coming from the big man at the top, but the group that they’re truly answering to is either Wall Street or a private board that is ironically… feeding all of our 401ks, PERS accounts, and personal investments on a daily basis.

I’m not saying that the greed isn’t there, but people need to take a hard look in the mirror when making statements about it
 
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Anon1704414204

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If they had message boards I bet I could find posts like this in every decade since 1800. Granted 1862 and 1928 probably had good reason.

If they had message boards I bet I could find posts like this in every decade since 1800. Granted 1862 and 1928 probably had good reason.
Except they didn't have message boards, big tech, academia, entertainment and such a huge chunk of news media in control of the political narrative and it is one sided. We're in Joseph Goebbels territory now. Sure the wealthy and politicians had influence with newspapers but investigative reporters were more free to expose stuff and challenge the status quo.
 

OG Goat Holder

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@Boom Boom , you’re being dumb. We ain’t in a recession. It actually makes your people look good. Factually, we ain’t. Still sucks though.
 

GloryDawg

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I hope this does not get locked, and everyone stays civil. This passive-aggressive argument style in which no one says anything substantive is fascinating!
Looking good
Under the cloak of media darkness, jobs numbers get retroactively adjusted down every month. Under the surface, jobs reports have been terrible for a while. Underlying metrics show that full time employment is still below pre-pandemic levels and millions and millions of people haven't re-entered the workforce. Most of these added jobs are part time jobs.
They do the opposite with a Republican is in office.
Never heard of this interest adjusted method for distribution. A Cash Balance defined plan uses an interest credit to calculate your annual benefit as well as a pay credit. This is your account balance and is available for a lump sum distribution when you retire. The employer is on the hook to make sure funds used for the distribution are not underfunded. So the higher the interest rates the higher your interest credit to your account balance. A regular defined benefit plan is periodic payments (usually monthly) over your actuary deemed life span. Even if they have a distribution option on retirement, the higher the interest rate on a parameter such as a 30 year Treasury bond, the higher your pay out.
You are correct for the plan. If I took a life settlement offer they need to manage that plan like you say. I have choices. I can take a Life only Settlement, Life and joint or what I want is a lump sum one payment.

My settlement option works this way. Once I reach my rule of 90 and I retire they will take my five best years and average them out, then pay me 70% of that number minus .099% for every year I am short from 30 years. In order to pay me that they have to manage that fund.

What I am going to take is a onetime payment. Lump sum. That lump sum needs to work out to my life expectancy. The higher the interest rates the lower the onetime payment needs to be. So, the lower the interest rate the higher my lump sum becomes. I have sat through three retirement meetings and it has always been said it is better to have lower interest rates when taking a lump sum.
 
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