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BWI Sport Betting Thread

Nittering Nabob

Nittering Nabob

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Grant Green said:
I don't think I've heard one person favor BYU this week. UCF seems to be on everyone's card. I got lucky and bet UCF at +2 and +107 (sprinkle) right before it moved to -2. I see juiced -2.5s now. May still be a good number, but at very least, be wary of betting BYU.
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So what are your thoughts about the following?

1) UCF has lost 5 in a row
2) UCF's only wins came early in the season against New Hampshire, Sam Houston St and TCU
3) BYU is 7-0, but their road victories are suspect... @ SMU 18-15;@ Wyoming 34-14; @ Baylor 34-28
4) UCF is favored by 1-2 pts. Are their injuries or weather one should consider?
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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Nittering Nabob said:
So what are your thoughts about the following?

1) UCF has lost 5 in a row
2) UCF's only wins came early in the season against New Hampshire, Sam Houston St and TCU
3) BYU is 7-0, but their road victories are suspect... @ SMU 18-15;@ Wyoming 34-14; @ Baylor 34-28
4) UCF is favored by 1-2 pts. Are their injuries or weather one should consider?
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The general consensus I get from a lot of listening is that BYU has been on the lucky side of things. I don't think they are quite as good as their record.

UCF has switched QBs from KJ Jefferson to Jacurri Brown which has made a difference. Way better runner which fits the Gus system better. Should have beat iowa state last week.

No injuries or weather that I know of, but I suspect that Byu may struggle with humidity as the game goes on.

I won a similar bet last year when a highly touted ok st came to a disappointing ucf mid to late season and got waxed. Hoping for a similar result this year. Ucf has lost five in a row which is often a good time to buy on a team as they are undervalued.
 
MtNittany

MtNittany

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Tulane, Memphis, IU, Navy, BYU (yes), Tosu, PSU, PSU 2nd half spread today.

B.O.B. and Boise got me off to a good start w/ covers last night.
 
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MtNittany

MtNittany

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Sheesh. I had Tulane -8 and Tulane/Over parlayed. NTSU scored a TD w/ 47 seconds left, after converting two 4th downs to lose by 8. $500 I really thought I had in my pocket. Oh well.
 
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Moogy

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Grant Green said:
The general consensus I get from a lot of listening is that BYU has been on the lucky side of things. I don't think they are quite as good as their record.

UCF has switched QBs from KJ Jefferson to Jacurri Brown which has made a difference. Way better runner which fits the Gus system better. Should have beat iowa state last week.

No injuries or weather that I know of, but I suspect that Byu may struggle with humidity as the game goes on.

I won a similar bet last year when a highly touted ok st came to a disappointing ucf mid to late season and got waxed. Hoping for a similar result this year. Ucf has lost five in a row which is often a good time to buy on a team as they are undervalued.
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Sometimes you're the windshield ... and sometimes you're the bug.
 
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Moogy

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Grant Green said:
The beauty of sports betting is you can be wrong 46% of the time And be very profitable. Most people have a hard time with this concept.
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I can always tell which gamblers are terrible. Because they always win. Just ask them. And usually you don't have to - they'll volunteer the information. Every week they'll talk about their 5 wins. Or maybe 4, and those darned refs screwed them out of the 5th. Meanwhile, they aren't telling you about their 7 (or more) losses. I knew a couple of guys like that .. down the line, they ended up in SERIOUS financial trouble because of their gambling losses.
 
Nittering Nabob

Nittering Nabob

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Moogy said:
I can always tell which gamblers are terrible. Because they always win. Just ask them. And usually you don't have to - they'll volunteer the information. Every week they'll talk about their 5 wins. Or maybe 4, and those darned refs screwed them out of the 5th. Meanwhile, they aren't telling you about their 7 (or more) losses. I knew a couple of guys like that .. down the line, they ended up in SERIOUS financial trouble because of their gambling losses.
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Why are you so preoccupied with other people's hobbies?

If you don't enjoy or condone sports wagering, perhaps you should just refrain from reading and participating in this thread. Just an idea.
 
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Moogy

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Nittering Nabob said:
Why are you so preoccupied with other people's hobbies?

If you don't enjoy or condone sports wagering, perhaps you should just refrain from reading and participating in this thread. Just an idea.
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Wut?

Why are you following me around, attempting to criticize me, but always being off the mark?

I have nothing against sports gambling. I like it. I follow it. Used to do it, but I stopped - even though it was a tiny, tiny financial involvement - simply to avoid any appearance of impropriety given what I currently do. I still do it "dry" ... I'll make my picks, but not put down any actual wagers.
I just shared my experience with it. Even when I was on a heater, I almost only ever talked about my absolute crap bets, or my bad beats. You would have thought I'd never won. The guys who only ever mentioned their wins, however ... those were the ones who were losing.

You're preoccupied with me, seemingly. I will criticize that "hobby."
 
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Grant Green

Grant Green

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Moogy said:
I can always tell which gamblers are terrible. Because they always win. Just ask them. And usually you don't have to - they'll volunteer the information. Every week they'll talk about their 5 wins. Or maybe 4, and those darned refs screwed them out of the 5th. Meanwhile, they aren't telling you about their 7 (or more) losses. I knew a couple of guys like that .. down the line, they ended up in SERIOUS financial trouble because of their gambling losses.
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So you won't believe me if I tell you I was 10-1 today;)
 
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Moogy

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Grant Green said:
So you won't believe me if I tell you I was 10-1 today;)
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LOL. Poop happens. Sometimes you go on hot streaks. Sometimes you're ice cold. If I knew you well enough to know you were also owning up to your losses, I'd believe you. If you were one of those folks who never told anyone your bets beforehand, but also only ever said things about your positive bets ... and those comments weren't that frequent, even though we knew you were betting a lot ... then, that's different.
 
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CDLionFL

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Welp, no way I was going to match or even come close to my 11-1-1 day I had last Saturday. But there was no need to threaten to go the other way with it!!

The Good -- not listening to everyone about BYU-UCF, riding the IU train, correctly wondering how NW was going to score on Iowa

The Bad -- not believing in PSU, thinking Syracuse-Pitt would be close, diving back into the 1-AA pool and finding no water

The Ugly -- falling asleep late in the 3:30 window and waking up after Miami-FSU had kicked and it was 7-0. So instead of betting Miami -20 1/2 like I wanted to, I live bet Miami -27 1/2. FSU scores in the final minute and the game ends 36-14.

Saved by a couple of hockey bets late and a 7-team ML parlay that paid +350 so it was a blah day rather than a rough day.
 
MtNittany

MtNittany

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CDLionFL said:
Welp, no way I was going to match or even come close to my 11-1-1 day I had last Saturday. But there was no need to threaten to go the other way with it!!

The Good -- not listening to everyone about BYU-UCF, riding the IU train, correctly wondering how NW was going to score on Iowa

The Bad -- not believing in PSU, thinking Syracuse-Pitt would be close, diving back into the 1-AA pool and finding no water

The Ugly -- falling asleep late in the 3:30 window and waking up after Miami-FSU had kicked and it was 7-0. So instead of betting Miami -20 1/2 like I wanted to, I live bet Miami -27 1/2. FSU scores in the final minute and the game ends 36-14.

Saved by a couple of hockey bets late and a 7-team ML parlay that paid +350 so it was a blah day rather than a rough day.
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I've been betting PSU and the 2nd half line for 2 games now (-3.5 yesterday). 2 winners. I also had them at -6.5 and in game -1.5. Another hedge I used yesterday was a $10 bet - 1st half winner (WI) and game winner (PSU) parlayed. Paid $70.
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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CDLionFL said:
Welp, no way I was going to match or even come close to my 11-1-1 day I had last Saturday. But there was no need to threaten to go the other way with it!!

The Good -- not listening to everyone about BYU-UCF, riding the IU train, correctly wondering how NW was going to score on Iowa

The Bad -- not believing in PSU, thinking Syracuse-Pitt would be close, diving back into the 1-AA pool and finding no water

The Ugly -- falling asleep late in the 3:30 window and waking up after Miami-FSU had kicked and it was 7-0. So instead of betting Miami -20 1/2 like I wanted to, I live bet Miami -27 1/2. FSU scores in the final minute and the game ends 36-14.

Saved by a couple of hockey bets late and a 7-team ML parlay that paid +350 so it was a blah day rather than a rough day.
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I wouldn't take anything from the Pitt vs Syracuse game. I can't ever remember a game where there has been 3 pick 6's at any level (plus 2 more INTs). I'll give some credit to Pitt's defense, but that is also very unlucky. However, I wouldn't pass judgement on a handicap in a game like that.
 
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Erial_Lion

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Grant Green said:
I wouldn't take anything from the Pitt vs Syracuse game. I can't ever remember a game where there has been 3 pick 6's at any level (plus 2 more INTs). I'll give some credit to Pitt's defense, but that is also very unlucky. However, I wouldn't pass judgement on a handicap in a game like that.
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While you're making sense of Box Scores, please break down the Lions-Titans game for me...possibly the weirdest one I've ever seen.
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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Misleading box scores for Week 9. There were a few more G5 games, but it was late and I didn't write them down.

ScoreYardsYPPTOs marg
GA Tech63564.4-2
Va Tech212333.5
Note: GA Tech also 1/5 on 4th down
MSU173525.4-1
UM242655.2
LSU234295.9-2
TAM383765.4
UW173185.5-1
IU313124.4
Note: While UW should have made this a closer game, this is now the 3rd game where UW has won the box score and lost the game. Something up with their mojo. All three were B10 games travelling 2+ time zones.

EDIT FOR ADD NOTES: Almost forgot to add a few notes I made to myself.
Duke was +6 in TOs and still lost to SMU. I don't know how much longer the Duke TO fortune can continue.
Navy was also -6 in TOs. Never going to cover like that.
 
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Grant Green

Grant Green

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Erial_Lion said:
While you're making sense of Box Scores, please break down the Lions-Titans game for me...possibly the weirdest one I've ever seen.
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Oh my! I was travelling and didn't do NFL yet, but just looked. That could be the most misleading box score ever. Ten outgained Det 416 to 225, 5.9 ypp to 4.8, but was -4 in TOs. Were there special teams TDs?
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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Grant Green said:
UO and UCLA cover and USC does not. B10 teams travelling 2+ time zones now 5-11 ATS.

PSA for Indiana fans. Rourke will be out for at least a few weeks.

Add note: Louisville is in a huge sandwich spot this week at BC, playing a tough game vs Miami last week and playing Clemson next week.
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USC covers vs Rutgers, IU covers vs UW, Oregon covers vs Illinois.
B10 traveling 2+ times zones now 5-14 ATS.

bonus note- BC did cover in the Louisville sandwich spot.
 
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Erial_Lion

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For those without ESPN+, an excerpt from an article today that touched on the Lions/Titans game...

www.espn.com

Solak turns the page to NFL Week 9: Toughest teams to figure out, plus a defense of Anthony Richardson

We sort through three confusing teams and one really confusing quarterback, plus the midseason All-Film Team and big NFL trends to watch.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

Like, a billion: That's how many weird stats I have about the Lions' win over the Titans, via ESPN Research:

  • The Lions are the first team in NFL history to win by 30-plus points yet be outgained by at least 150 yards since 1933 (which is the first year someone was, like, "Hey, we should keep track of how many yards these teams got in this game").
  • The Lions scored 52 points despite only totaling 225 yards of offense, which is the second-fewest yards gained in a 50-plus-point outing in NFL history (shoutout to the 1941 Packers).
  • The Lions had 61 net passing yards, which is the second-fewest passing yards gained in a 50-plus-point outing in NFL history (shoutout to the 1950 Giants).
OK, that's yards. Now drives:

  • The Lions had four touchdown drives of 25 or fewer yards. They're the second team to ever have that many touchdown drives under 25 yards, joining the 1988 Houston Oilers.
  • The Lions had five touchdown drives of 30 or fewer yards. Going as far back as the Elias Sports Bureau has data (1978), that had never happened until Sunday.
  • The Lions also had five touchdown drives of four or fewer total plays -- only the sixth time that has happened in a single game this century.
  • The Lions' average starting field position for the full game was their own 41.8-yard line, the fourth-best starting field position for a game this season.
Just a preposterous game. One in a million.
 
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Erial_Lion

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1995PSUGrad said:
Question for the serious gamblers. Texans are getting 1.5 from the Jets. The Jets are terrible. What am I missing?
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Biggest thing is likely that you think the Jets are worse than most NFL cappers would think. This was posted elsewhere behind a paywall when someone asked…


I have seen this comment about 5-10 times so far between twitter and youtube this week. I was in a conversation with it on twitter with another account yesterday too. I am surprised the line has drawn this much discussion!

The way I look at it…

  • Two teams played NE in recent weeks and closed within 0.5 points of each other.
  • Texans were 1.5 points better in aggregate ratings last week prior to Week 8 games
  • Texans lost another WR last week and have not been above 6.0 per play since the Collins injury vs NE, GB, IND.
  • Jets have been 5.9 per play or above and 325 per game or above (both higher than average) in two games with Adams, three in a row overall and have won the YPP battle in 5/8 games this season but are 2-6.
Tough to argue more than 1-1.5 points either way from PK on this one.
 
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CDLionFL

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If the Texans had Nico, I'd feel pretty good about picking them. I wouldn't pick the Jets with your money.
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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1995PSUGrad said:
Question for the serious gamblers. Texans are getting 1.5 from the Jets. The Jets are terrible. What am I missing?
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You may hear a lot of more casual bettors refer to events like this as a "stinky" or "fishy" line. I think the notion is that the sportsbooks are begging you to bet Houston (because "they know something") and the bettor should be wary. I don't really buy into the whole trap line thing, but I agree with the general notion of being careful with lines that look off to the public. It's usually because they are under or over rating a team based on recent performances. When everyone thinks a team sucks, that's often the best time to buy.

To add to everything @Erial_Lion said (I have NYJ at -1.5), it's not crazy to give an extra 1/2 point to the home team on Thursday night.

Line hasn't really moved all week. Will be interesting to see if it does later today.

Last thing - cluster injuries at WR for Houston and the offense was already hampered without Collins.
 
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MtNittany

MtNittany

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Really like the Tulane team Over 34.5 tonight. If they could ever stop someone, they'd be a formidable team.

I bet against Liberty last night. Felt good after how they did me last week.
 
LionJim

LionJim

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MtNittany said:
Really like the Tulane team Over 34.5 tonight. If they could ever stop someone, they'd be a formidable team.

I bet against Liberty last night. Felt good after how they did me last week.
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For my own edification: Jacksonville State 31-21 Liberty, last night.
 
MtNittany

MtNittany

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I'm getting cash out offers from a PSU to win bet I placed on HR the other day. Don't usually see them in games like this after this much time. The number is getting really close to the bet fwiw.
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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MtNittany said:
I'm getting cash out offers from a PSU to win bet I placed on HR the other day. Don't usually see them in games like this after this much time. The number is getting really close to the bet fwiw.
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Probably because the line is dropping, likely due to whispers that Allar will play. I would almost never take a buyout offer, as the book is likely getting the best of it. Better EV would be to bet OSU for a portion of the original bet if it goes to -2.5 and hope to hit a middle if the game falls 3.
 
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